Train for the Day the System Goes Dark
Do not just train for the attack. Train for the failure of the systems you expect to help you respond to it.
Read briefThe Watch Floor · The Briefing Room
Watch Floor Briefs
Threat assessments, intelligence analysis, and lessons drawn from the issues shaping national security.
From the briefing table
The full collection, in one place.
These briefs were written to make complicated threats easier to see: what changed, why it matters, what may come next, and which signals deserve another look. Browse chronologically below, or follow a subject deeper through the Library paths.
Briefing Index
Latest assessments and analysis.
Open a title for the full brief. Dates reflect the original publication date.
See Something, Say Something: What Are You Actually Looking For?
A Watch Floor brief on recognizing behavior in context, reporting a useful observation, and building the handoff that gets a warning to the people who can act.
Read briefHow Russia Outsourced an Assassination in America
A companion memo to the September 21 Watch Floor episode. The indictment describes a layered recruitment network, completed surveillance in the U.S., and alleged assassination and sabotage assignments…
Read briefAl-Qaeda Waited Five Years to Release This Hamza bin Laden Content
Al-Qaeda held footage of Hamza bin Laden recorded as Afghanistan was falling in August 2021 and waited more than five years to release it. The timing tells us…
Read briefWhat AQIS Wants the Next Generation to Learn From 9/11
AQIS is using the 25th anniversary of 9/11 to explain to a younger audience why it believes America should remain the priority and to connect September 11, Gaza,…
Read briefThe ISIS Blind Spots We Keep Missing
ISIS’s global spokesman reportedly surfaced in a mud-brick house in Yemen. The bigger intelligence question may be what was recovered inside and what it reveals about connections across…
Read briefWashington Is Coming Back
The House is back after the August recess, the Senate returns for regular business September 14, and Washington is beginning to move again. The useful things to watch…
Read brief10 Warnings Buried in Congress’s New 9/11 Report
Twenty-five years after 9/11, the House Intelligence Committee reviewed what the U.S. fixed, what remains unfinished, and where new intelligence gaps may be forming. These are ten findings…
Read briefThe Oil War Behind the Headlines
The fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and Washington’s new Venezuela oil agreement look like separate stories. Viewed through energy security, they are part of the same problem:…
Read briefThe Intelligence Value of a Plane Spotter
A Chinese university student studying in Canada is in U.S. custody after the FBI says he admitted photographing specific aircraft and airport facilities for a contact he believed…
Read briefSomeone Is Studying Europe’s Defense Supply Chain
Just after midnight Monday, an alarm sounded at a WB Electronics facility in Skarżysko-Kamienna, Poland. Local reporting said a masked person carrying a backpack was captured on surveillance…
Read brief85 Americans Missing in the Himalayas
A catastrophic glacier collapse along the Nepal-Tibet border left thousands dead or missing, including approximately 85 Americans. Many of the Americans were pilgrims traveling to or from Mount…
Read briefAbbey Gate: The Twelve Days Before the Bomb
Five years after the Abbey Gate bombing, this brief reconstructs the twelve days before the attack: the authorization, the bomber’s release and movement, the network around Kabul airport,…
Read briefWhat the Heck Happened in Ceuta, Spain?
Tens of thousands of people converged on Ceuta after a legal ruling was distorted online, social media amplified the perception of an open border, and authorities were overwhelmed.…
Read briefFive Years After Kabul, History Is Repeating Itself
Five years after Kabul fell, Afghanistan should not be understood simply as the end of America’s longest war. It marked the beginning of another cycle in which terrorist…
Read briefThe Taliban’s Northern Fault Line
Growing anti-Taliban resistance in northern Afghanistan is doing more than testing the battlefield. It is exposing tensions between the movement’s southern Pashtun leadership and influential Tajik, Uzbek, and…
Read briefU.S.-Iran Negotiations: The Sixty-Day Clock
As of this week, the United States and Iran are operating under an interim memorandum of understanding reached following the 2026 conflict. Despite some headlines suggesting otherwise, this…
Read briefThe Chinese Border Surge Is Over. The Network It Built Is Not.
The surge of Chinese nationals arriving at America's borders between 2021 and 2024 has largely disappeared from the headlines. Border encounters have fallen dramatically across both the southern…
Read briefEbola Returns: What Worked Last Time and What Didn’t
The return of Ebola to international headlines is a reminder that some threats never disappear; they simply fade from public attention until conditions allow them to reemerge. The…
Read briefCuba at the Breaking Point: Law, Pressure, and the Next Phase of U.S. Strategy
The recent federal indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue is being viewed by…
Read briefOperation Tidal Wave
Operation Tidal Wave was not simply a cruise ship scandal. It was a clear example of how modern digital exploitation investigations are now conducted: quietly, internationally, and often…
Read briefLogistics as a Vulnerability
Fifteen agricultural spray drones were stolen from a logistics warehouse in New Jersey around March 24, 2026. The removal did not involve forced entry or overt physical breach.…
Read briefFailure of Islamabad Talks and Implications for the Two-Week Ceasefire
The recent U.S.–Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without an agreement after roughly 21 hours of direct discussions. The talks, facilitated by Pakistan and involving senior U.S. officials including…
Read briefThe Polycrisis: A System Under Strain
The current global environment is no longer defined by isolated crises. It is defined by convergence. What analysts now describe as a polycrisis is not a theoretical concept,…
Read briefThe Patterns Before the Blast: What Terrorists Do Before They Strike
When people think about terrorism, they picture the moment of impact — the explosion, the gunfire, the chaos. But that moment is the final phase of a much…
Read briefLooking for Terrorism the Wrong Way
A recent U.S. Army counterintelligence and antiterrorism awareness message reminded personnel to remain vigilant and report suspicious behavior that could threaten U.S. forces, installations, or infrastructure. The guidance…
Read briefLooking for Terrorism the Wrong Way
A recent U.S. Army counterintelligence and antiterrorism awareness message reminded personnel to remain vigilant and report suspicious behavior that could threaten U.S. forces, installations, or infrastructure. The guidance…
Read briefChinese Intrusion into an FBI Surveillance Metadata System
Recent reporting indicates that suspicious activity was detected within a system connected to surveillance metadata used by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Investigators believe the intrusion may be…
Read briefTesting the System: Russia’s Parcel Bomb Probes Inside Europe’s Shipping Network
A cardboard box rarely looks like a weapon. That is exactly what makes this story worth paying attention to. European investigators recently uncovered a covert operation linked to…
Read briefPost-Iranian Strikes: A Threat Assessment
We are at a consequential moment. Credible indicators suggest Ali Khamenei is likely dead, creating a destabilizing shock within the Iranian regime. Leadership transitions in hardline systems are…
Read briefSomeone Has to Own It: State-Level Counterintelligence & Counterterrorism
There is a structural gap in how we handle counterintelligence and counterterrorism in this country. We default to the federal government, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the…
Read briefThe Underrated Threat: When a Resume Becomes a Weapon
For two decades, Western cybersecurity strategy focused on infrastructure. We hardened networks, segmented environments, deployed detection systems, and institutionalized zero trust frameworks. And it worked to a point.…
Read briefIRGC Unit 840: Iran’s Covert Global Threat
IRGC Unit 840 is a secretive part of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that mixes intelligence, proxies, and criminal networks to carry out covert operations around the world.…
Read briefNext Door Threats: How Terrorist Safehouses Operate in Plain Sight
Most terrorist attacks in the United States and Western countries do not begin with violence. They begin quietly, inside ordinary apartment buildings and rental homes that look no…
Read briefISIS Regeneration Risk in Syria
The release and transfer of ISIS-affiliated women from detention facilities in Syria by forces aligned with Abu Mohammad al-Julani represents a material and underrecognized security threat. These women…
Read briefInside Somali Fraud: How the System Was Gamed
Recent federal prosecutions and government actions have exposed a broad pattern of fraud tied to Somali-linked networks exploiting U.S. taxpayer-funded programs. While individual cases are often treated as…
Read briefIran in Revolt
Iran is experiencing one of the most widespread and sustained protest waves in recent years. Beginning in late December 2025, demonstrations quickly expanded from isolated shop closures in…
Read briefSomaliland: Recognition, Reality, and the Cost of Rewarding Failure Elsewhere
Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland formalizes a political reality that has existed since 1991 and highlights a long-standing gap between international policy and what actually happens on the…
Read briefFrom Strategic Warning to Strategic Drift
As 2026 begins, it is necessary to acknowledge a fundamental reality: the counterterrorism recalibration called for at the start of 2025 did not occur. Despite clear intelligence indicators…
Read briefSymbolic Significance of 2 Rajab 1447 in Al-Qaeda’s Homeland Plotting
Al-Qaeda senior operatives and external operations planners, under the direction of the organization’s second generation of bin Laden leadership, originally plotted the next phase of U.S. homeland plots…
Read briefAQIS Video Assessment: The Ten Seconds That Matter
AQIS released a six-minute video on December 6th titled From Dasht-e-Leili to the Victory of Kabul. Most people will focus on the usual imagery—martyrs, battlefield losses, historic grievances.…
Read briefDeception as Doctrine
For groups like al-Qaeda, deception is not optional, it is a weapon of war. Their doctrine makes this clear. Under concepts such as taqiyya and kitman, concealment, misdirection,…
Read briefHoliday Season Threat Awareness and the Role of Public Vigilance
As the holiday season approaches, the security environment always grows more vulnerable to threat activity. Large gatherings, predictable public events, and symbolic religious observances provide both opportunity and…
Read briefModern Exploitation in the Digital Age
Over the past decade, the battleground of child sexual exploitation has shifted from physical trafficking routes to digital terrain. Smartphones, encrypted messaging apps, and anonymous payment systems have…
Read briefTargeted Killings of Christians Across Africa
Between January and October 2025, Africa has witnessed a sharp escalation in targeted killings of Christians, with concentrated violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Mozambique,…
Read briefLessons from October 7th: A Warning for America
Technology, human intelligence, community readiness, exercises, escalation planning, and ignored warnings all carry lessons for the United States.
Read briefAbbey Gate’s Red Umbrella: A Beacon Then, a Warning Now
The red umbrella at Abbey Gate in Kabul, Afghanistan before the 2021 attack emerged as an unassuming yet vital beacon amidst the chaos of the evacuation. In the…
Read briefThe Myth of the Uneducated Terrorist: How Professional Skills Enable Operations in the West
The stereotype that terrorists are poor, uneducated, and socially marginalized is not only inaccurate—it’s dangerous. Time and again, investigations reveal that many extremist operatives are highly educated professionals…
Read briefFBI Entrapment Operations and Terrorist Recruitment: A Dangerous Feedback Loop
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) continues to rely on controversial entrapment operations as a core component of its counterterrorism strategy—a practice increasingly criticized for targeting low-hanging fruit…
Read briefSuicide Bomber Recognition and Response: Lessons from the EasyJet Incident
On July 27, 2025, Abhay Nayak, a 41-year-old passenger on an EasyJet flight from London to Glasgow, caused panic when he exited the lavatory mid-flight shouting “Allahu Akbar”…
Read briefThe Bin Laden Legacy and the Renewed Threat to the Homeland
The Bin Laden family is actively shaping operational plans for a large-scale attack on the U.S. homeland—an attack intended to eclipse the strategic and symbolic impact of 9/11.…
Read briefFrom Afghanistan to Mogadishu: Hamza bin Laden’s Tactical Plotting — A U.S. Intelligence Blind Spot
Hamza bin Laden, the current leader of Al-Qaeda, continues to direct the group’s plotting and operations from Afghanistan with apparent impunity. Under his leadership, Al-Qaeda has shifted from…
Read briefThe Formation and Objectives of the Islamic Army
The concept of an "Islamic Army" or "Army of Imam Mahdi" traces back to Osama bin Laden’s vision of uniting global terrorist groups under a singular mission—a goal…
Read briefU.S. Hostages and the Cost of Inaction
New reporting from June 15th, 2025, has reignited outrage over the fate of missing American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria in 2012. According to a former…
Read briefZawahiri’s Deception Playbook: How al-Qaeda’s Mastermind Outsmarted the West
For over two decades, Ayman al-Zawahiri didn’t just evade capture—he ran circles around the West. His success wasn’t rooted in hiding in caves or radio silence; it came…
Read briefThe Second Wave: Afghanistan’s Expanding Tier-Two Terrorist Threat
While most of our attention has remained fixed on al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP), there is an increasingly dangerous layer of transnational terrorist groups…
Read briefKey Lessons from Saif al-Adel’s Strategic Thinking
As Saif al-Adel emerges as a key architect in al-Qaeda’s upcoming plots against the U.S. soil emanating from Afghanistan, it’s critical to examine his strategic mindset. Adel’s thinking…
Read briefRiyadh Revisited: Lessons from a Complex Attack and Implications for Homeland Defense
On this date in 2003, a series of coordinated suicide bombings struck residential compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, targeting Western nationals. Orchestrated by al-Qaeda, these attacks demonstrated a…
Read briefThe 2025 Kashmir Attack, Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Proxy Strategy, and Taliban-Enabled Terrorism
On April 22, 2025, several terrorists carried out a deadly assault primarily targeting Hindu tourists in the Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, in Jammu and Kashmir, India. At least…
Read briefWhat If? A Modernized Bojinka-Style Plot on U.S. Soil
Remembering Bojinka: In 1995, Operation Bojinka revealed how a handful of well-trained terrorists could coordinate multiple airliner bombings by exploiting gaps in aviation security. Law enforcement fortuitously disrupted…
Read briefAFRICOM Chief Repeats ISIS Propaganda on Global Leadership Shift
In a stunning example of terrorist misinformation shaping U.S. policy discussions, the head of United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), General Michael E. Langley, testified before the Senate Armed…
Read briefAl-Shabaab’s Strategic Advance Toward Mogadishu
Al-Qaeda is increasingly encouraged by the momentum of its affiliate in Somalia, al-Shabaab, as the group makes a calculated push toward Mogadishu. This is not merely a local…
Read briefShielding Terror: How the Taliban Protects ISKP Leadership
The Taliban has systematically covered up the survival of multiple senior Islamic State-Khorasan (ISKP) figures while staging fake operations that falsely claim to target the group. In reality,…
Read briefISKP Hospital Threat and Multi-Phase Attack Strategies in the U.S. Homeland
Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP) has intensified its focus on targeting mid-tier cities within the United States, aiming to disrupt emergency services and sideline first responders. Hospitals have emerged…
Read briefJihadi Genealogy: Exploiting Family Ties for Targeting
The elimination of the head of the military council of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Abdullah Maki Musleh Al-Rifai, known as Abu Khadija, on…
Read briefA Legacy of Terror – 2025 Marks Key Anniversaries of Major al-Qaeda Plots
This year marks several critical anniversaries of al-Qaeda’s past attacks and failed plots, each of which has shaped the group’s evolving strategy and remains a blueprint for future…
Read briefEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Strengthening Local Capabilities
With the federal government’s loss of extensive counterterrorism (CT) access overseas, its ability to detect and disrupt terrorist plots before they reach U.S. soil has been severely diminished.…
Read briefEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Expanding Regional Resiliency
As we continue to build upon last week’s foundational strategies, it is clear that expanding specialized capabilities is a key pillar of strengthening local counterterrorism efforts. With the…
Read briefIntelligence Brief: The Threat of Terrorist Impersonation of Police, Military, and First Responders in U.S. Plots
Terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS have a long history of employing deceptive tactics, including the use of disguises, to carry out attacks. Both groups have previously utilized…
Read briefIntelligence Brief: Sweden’s Security Challenges and Immigration-Related Factors
In January 2025 alone, Sweden recorded 32 bombing incidents, marking a sharp increase in such attacks. This alarming trend is closely linked to criminal gang activity, the impact…
Read briefEvolution of al-Qaeda’s Invisible Bomb
Al-Qaeda’s interest in undetectable bombs gained traction in the early 2000s, particularly under the guidance of explosives experts seeking to exploit gaps in Western security systems. However, it…
Read briefDuplicity and Misinformation: The Taliban’s Strategy to Garner U.S. Taxpayer Dollars
The U.S. government's acknowledgment of the Taliban's purported counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) has become a cornerstone of its post-withdrawal policy in Afghanistan. Public statements,…
Read briefAn Evolved Counterterrorism Strategy for 2025
As we begin the new year, our intelligence and law enforcement communities must recalibrate their approach to counterterrorism. The fragmented and siloed methods of bucketing individual terrorist organizations…
Read briefIslamic State Facilitates Deals to Relocate Terrorists from Syrian Detention Camps to Afghanistan
Islamic State leadership is interestingly making plans to relocate detainees from several detention camps in northeastern Syria, including the Al-Hol and Al-Roj camps. These plans reflect ISIS’s belief…
Read briefMissing Radioactive Material: Facts Over Fear
When a small radioactive source went missing in New Jersey, headlines skewed toward worst-case scenarios, fueling public anxiety and conspiracy theories. Understanding the actual facts behind these events…
Read briefOngoing Threats to Christmas Markets and Potential Exploitation by Pro-Hamas Groups
As the holiday season approaches, the risk of terrorist attacks targeting Christmas markets, particularly across Europe, appears heightened. This includes both traditional threats, primarily from terrorist groups like…
Read briefAl-Qaeda’s Call to Restore the Islamic Caliphate
Al-Qaeda and its newly formed Islamic Army have declared their intent to restore the Islamic caliphate. This concept refers to a unified Islamic state governed by strict sharia…
Read briefEmbassies Under Fire: Al-Qaeda’s Covert Attack Strategy
Al-Qaeda’s central leadership in Afghanistan is actively plotting attacks on embassies across Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. This continues their long-standing strategy of targeting U.S. diplomatic outposts…
Read briefUnderestimating the Enemy: Lessons from Pearl Harbor and Beyond
As we approach the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, it is crucial to reflect on the enduring lessons of that fateful day. On December 7th, 1941,…
Read briefUnderstanding the Origins and Rationale Behind the 2017 Travel Restrictions
Last Saturday, October 26th, after former President and current Republican nominee Donald J. Trump received endorsements from elements of Michigan’s Muslim community, misinformation resurfaced regarding the 2017 travel…
Read briefEvolving Tactics: Al-Qaeda’s Operational Lessons from Guantanamo Bay Detention
The years that our enemy, the high-value Al-Qaeda detainees, spent in Guantanamo Bay provided them with a unique opportunity to study their captors. These terrorists were exposed to…
Read briefOne Year After October 7: Exposing the Gaps in U.S. Intelligence
Today, on the one-year anniversary of the October 7th, 2023, attacks in Israel, the profound implications of this tragedy become increasingly clear. The attacks, executed by Hamas, resulted…
Read briefThe Unintended Consequence: How U.S. Post-9/11 Strategy Strengthened al-Qaeda
In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the United States undertook an unprecedented restructuring of its counterterrorism and national security infrastructure. This response resulted in the creation and…
Read briefAl-Qaeda: A Comparative Assessment of Its Global Reach and Capabilities from 2001 to Today
August 28, 2024 Introduction This analysis compares al-Qaeda's leadership, global presence, operational capabilities, financial networks, ideological influence, relationship with the Taliban, recruitment strategies, and alliances in August 2001…
Read briefStrategic Implications of Abandoned U.S. and ISAF Military Bases in Afghanistan
The withdrawal of U.S. and International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) from Afghanistan in 2021 has left behind a network of military and intelligence bases that offer the Taliban…
Read briefLegacy of the 1983 Beirut Marine Barracks Bombings: Unfinished Justice
On July 30, 2024, senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr aka Hajj Mohsin was killed in an Israeli airstrike on a residential building in a Hezbollah stronghold in…
Read briefPotential Threats to the Paris Olympic Games
The upcoming Paris Olympic Games, scheduled to begin on July 26th, is preparing for a host of threats. While numerous actors could potentially disrupt the Games, the focus…
Read briefThe Integration of al-Qaeda and the Taliban: A Unified Front
The merging of al-Qaeda and the Taliban into a single, cohesive entity is a reality that U.S. policy and assessments have yet to fully acknowledge. From the perspective…
Read briefU.S. Embassy Attack: The Curious Case of Qais Farraj
Who, you ask? Let's explain. On June 5, 2024, the U.S. Embassy in Awker (Beirut), Lebanon, was surprised by an armed assault carried out by terrorist Qais Farraj.…
Read brief