Watch Floor Brief
Al-Qaeda Waited Five Years to Release This Hamza bin Laden Content
Al-Qaeda held footage of Hamza bin Laden recorded as Afghanistan was falling in August 2021 and waited more than five years to release it.…
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Watch Floor Briefs
Threat assessments, intelligence analysis, and lessons drawn from the issues shaping national security.
From the briefing table
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These briefs were written to make complicated threats easier to see: what changed, why it matters, what may come next, and which signals deserve another look. Browse chronologically below, or follow a subject deeper through the Library paths.
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Open any card for the full brief. Dates reflect the original publication date.
The Watch FloorWhat AQIS Wants the Next Generation to Learn From 9/11Facts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
What AQIS Wants the Next Generation to Learn From 9/11
AQIS is using the 25th anniversary of 9/11 to explain to a younger audience why it believes America should remain the priority and to…
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Watch Floor Brief
The ISIS Blind Spots We Keep Missing
ISIS’s global spokesman reportedly surfaced in a mud-brick house in Yemen. The bigger intelligence question may be what was recovered inside and what it…
Read briefThe Watch FloorWashington Is Coming BackFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Washington Is Coming Back
The House is back after the August recess, the Senate returns for regular business September 14, and Washington is beginning to move again. The…
Read briefThe Watch Floor10 Warnings Buried in Congress’s New 9/11 ReportFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
10 Warnings Buried in Congress’s New 9/11 Report
Twenty-five years after 9/11, the House Intelligence Committee reviewed what the U.S. fixed, what remains unfinished, and where new intelligence gaps may be forming.…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Oil War Behind the HeadlinesFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Oil War Behind the Headlines
The fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and Washington’s new Venezuela oil agreement look like separate stories. Viewed through energy security, they are part…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Intelligence Value of a Plane SpotterFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Intelligence Value of a Plane Spotter
A Chinese university student studying in Canada is in U.S. custody after the FBI says he admitted photographing specific aircraft and airport facilities for…
Read briefThe Watch FloorSomeone Is Studying Europe’s Defense Supply ChainFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Someone Is Studying Europe’s Defense Supply Chain
Just after midnight Monday, an alarm sounded at a WB Electronics facility in Skarżysko-Kamienna, Poland. Local reporting said a masked person carrying a backpack…
Read briefThe Watch Floor85 Americans Missing in the HimalayasFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
85 Americans Missing in the Himalayas
A catastrophic glacier collapse along the Nepal-Tibet border left thousands dead or missing, including approximately 85 Americans. Many of the Americans were pilgrims traveling…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAbbey Gate: The Twelve Days Before the BombFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Abbey Gate: The Twelve Days Before the Bomb
Five years after the Abbey Gate bombing, this brief reconstructs the twelve days before the attack: the authorization, the bomber’s release and movement, the…
Read briefThe Watch FloorWhat the Heck Happened in Ceuta, Spain?Facts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
What the Heck Happened in Ceuta, Spain?
Tens of thousands of people converged on Ceuta after a legal ruling was distorted online, social media amplified the perception of an open border,…
Read briefThe Watch FloorFive Years After Kabul, History Is Repeating ItselfFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Five Years After Kabul, History Is Repeating Itself
Five years after Kabul fell, Afghanistan should not be understood simply as the end of America’s longest war. It marked the beginning of another…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Taliban’s Northern Fault LineFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Taliban’s Northern Fault Line
Growing anti-Taliban resistance in northern Afghanistan is doing more than testing the battlefield. It is exposing tensions between the movement’s southern Pashtun leadership and…
Read briefThe Watch FloorU.S.-Iran Negotiations: The Sixty-Day ClockFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
U.S.-Iran Negotiations: The Sixty-Day Clock
As of this week, the United States and Iran are operating under an interim memorandum of understanding reached following the 2026 conflict. Despite some…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe UFC Plot: The Ideology No One Wants to Talk AboutFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The UFC Plot: The Ideology No One Wants to Talk About
Opening Welcome to The Watch Floor. I'm Sarah Adams. Over the couple of last weeks, you've probably heard about the alleged plot against UFC…
Read briefThe Watch FloorDo Not Put Al-Qaeda’s Friends in CongressFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Do Not Put Al-Qaeda’s Friends in Congress
Welcome to The Watch Floor. I’m Sarah Adams. Today we are talking about Adam Hamawy HAM ah Wee, the Democratic nominee in New Jersey’s…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Chinese Border Surge Is Over. The Network It Built Is Not.Facts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Chinese Border Surge Is Over. The Network It Built Is Not.
The surge of Chinese nationals arriving at America's borders between 2021 and 2024 has largely disappeared from the headlines. Border encounters have fallen dramatically…
Read briefThe Watch FloorEbola Returns: What Worked Last Time and What Didn’tFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Ebola Returns: What Worked Last Time and What Didn’t
The return of Ebola to international headlines is a reminder that some threats never disappear; they simply fade from public attention until conditions allow…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe New Domestic Threat Category Nobody Saw ComingFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The New Domestic Threat Category Nobody Saw Coming
Wired article: https://www.wired.com/story/us-law-enforcement-warns-of-anti-tech-extremism/ Over the last several years, the United States has seen a massive expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Huge data centers are…
Read briefThe Watch FloorCuba at the Breaking Point: Law, Pressure, and the Next Phase of U.S. StrategyFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Cuba at the Breaking Point: Law, Pressure, and the Next Phase of U.S. Strategy
The recent federal indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue…
Read briefThe Watch FloorOperation Tidal WaveFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Operation Tidal Wave
Operation Tidal Wave was not simply a cruise ship scandal. It was a clear example of how modern digital exploitation investigations are now conducted:…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAn Evolved Counterterrorism StrategyFacts over narratives
Strategy · Networks & Ecosystems
An Evolved Counterterrorism Strategy
A framework for moving beyond group-by-group disruption toward the shared ecosystems, facilitators, logistics, finance, and technical support that allow threats to regenerate.
Read on the siteThe Watch FloorPre-Attack Indicators: What We Could Have Seen Before the White House Correspondents Dinner IncidentFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Pre-Attack Indicators: What We Could Have Seen Before the White House Correspondents Dinner Incident
Intro Everyone is talking about the aftermath of the attack at the White House Correspondents Dinner—the response, the security questions, and what failed in…
Read briefThe Watch FloorLogistics as a VulnerabilityFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Logistics as a Vulnerability
Fifteen agricultural spray drones were stolen from a logistics warehouse in New Jersey around March 24, 2026. The removal did not involve forced entry…
Read briefThe Watch FloorWhat People Get Wrong About Intelligence WorkFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
What People Get Wrong About Intelligence Work
So I wanted to do a more relaxed episode on this because I think there’s a pretty big gap between what people think intelligence…
Read briefThe Watch FloorFailure of Islamabad Talks and Implications for the Two-Week CeasefireFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Failure of Islamabad Talks and Implications for the Two-Week Ceasefire
The recent U.S.–Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without an agreement after roughly 21 hours of direct discussions. The talks, facilitated by Pakistan and involving…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Polycrisis: A System Under StrainFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Polycrisis: A System Under Strain
The current global environment is no longer defined by isolated crises. It is defined by convergence. What analysts now describe as a polycrisis is…
Read briefThe Watch FloorPalm Sunday in the Shadow of Persecution Christians Under Fire Around the WorldFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Palm Sunday in the Shadow of Persecution Christians Under Fire Around the World
Palm Sunday, observed around the world, is meant to be a time of peace, reflection, and faith. But this year, in multiple regions, it…
Read briefThe Watch FloorWhat They Said and What They Didn’t: Breaking Down the Terrorism ThreatFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
What They Said and What They Didn’t: Breaking Down the Terrorism Threat
I just read the bolded sections of the new ODNI Threat Assessment that can be found here starting on page 7 under the Terrorism…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Patterns Before the Blast: What Terrorists Do Before They StrikeFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Patterns Before the Blast: What Terrorists Do Before They Strike
When people think about terrorism, they picture the moment of impact — the explosion, the gunfire, the chaos. But that moment is the final…
Read briefThe Watch FloorDecision Logic Behind Terrorist AttacksFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Decision Logic Behind Terrorist Attacks
Intro When most people think about the Decision Logic Behind Terrorist Attacks they think about ideology. They think belief comes first—and that belief drives…
Read briefThe Watch FloorLooking for Terrorism the Wrong WayFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Looking for Terrorism the Wrong Way
A recent U.S. Army counterintelligence and antiterrorism awareness message reminded personnel to remain vigilant and report suspicious behavior that could threaten U.S. forces, installations,…
Read briefThe Watch FloorChinese Intrusion into an FBI Surveillance Metadata SystemFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Chinese Intrusion into an FBI Surveillance Metadata System
Recent reporting indicates that suspicious activity was detected within a system connected to surveillance metadata used by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Investigators believe…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAI Isn’t Just a Tool — It’s Becoming a Cyber Espionage WeaponFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
AI Isn’t Just a Tool — It’s Becoming a Cyber Espionage Weapon
Here’s a couple clips on this: https://youtu.be/xKfVxHyzB3g?si=vtzJPCSu_89apTLv https://youtu.be/JNn9hnPYXa4?si=trayGOQGVuMx1b0m Intro We’ve all heard the warnings about artificial intelligence — deepfakes, job automation, ethical debates. But…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Signs Most People Miss Before AttacksFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Signs Most People Miss Before Attacks
A Practical Guide to Recognizing PreAttack Behavior Anyone Can Spot Intro: When people think of terrorism, the images that come to mind are usually…
Read briefThe Watch FloorTesting the System: Russia’s Parcel Bomb Probes Inside Europe’s Shipping NetworkFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Testing the System: Russia’s Parcel Bomb Probes Inside Europe’s Shipping Network
A cardboard box rarely looks like a weapon. That is exactly what makes this story worth paying attention to. European investigators recently uncovered a…
Read briefThe Watch FloorEspionage Off the Radar: Weird, Wild, and Under-Reported Spy OperationsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Espionage Off the Radar: Weird, Wild, and Under-Reported Spy Operations
Today, I want to take you into a world most people never hear about—espionage that’s weird, audacious, and happening right now… but off the…
Read briefThe Watch FloorPost-Iranian Strikes: A Threat AssessmentFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Post-Iranian Strikes: A Threat Assessment
We are at a consequential moment. Credible indicators suggest Ali Khamenei is likely dead, creating a destabilizing shock within the Iranian regime. Leadership transitions…
Read briefThe Watch FloorSomeone Has to Own It: State-Level Counterintelligence & CounterterrorismFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Someone Has to Own It: State-Level Counterintelligence & Counterterrorism
There is a structural gap in how we handle counterintelligence and counterterrorism in this country. We default to the federal government, the Federal Bureau…
Read briefThe Watch FloorHeld Hostage: America’s Citizens as Political LeverageFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Held Hostage: America’s Citizens as Political Leverage
In today’s episode we’re talking about Hostage Diplomacy — not in abstract terms, but through the real human lives of Americans held hostage abroad…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Underrated Threat: When a Resume Becomes a WeaponFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Underrated Threat: When a Resume Becomes a Weapon
For two decades, Western cybersecurity strategy focused on infrastructure. We hardened networks, segmented environments, deployed detection systems, and institutionalized zero trust frameworks. And it…
Read briefThe Watch FloorIRGC Unit 840: Iran’s Covert Global ThreatFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
IRGC Unit 840: Iran’s Covert Global Threat
IRGC Unit 840 is a secretive part of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that mixes intelligence, proxies, and criminal networks to carry out covert…
Read briefThe Watch FloorHavana Syndrome: The Attacks Didn’t Start in HavanaFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Havana Syndrome: The Attacks Didn’t Start in Havana
Intro Let’s start by getting something out of the way. This episode is about Havana Syndrome — and it is not about stress.It’s not…
Read briefThe Watch FloorHeroic Operations: How the BLA Is Running a Phased Terrorist CampaignFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Heroic Operations: How the BLA Is Running a Phased Terrorist Campaign
Over the weekend, Pakistan’s Baluchistan province experienced a coordinated wave of terrorist attacks spanning multiple cities. What is critical to understand from the outset…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Terrorist Playbook: Saif al-Adel’s 33 Strategies and How to Think Like the EnemyFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Terrorist Playbook: Saif al-Adel’s 33 Strategies and How to Think Like the Enemy
Intro When most people think about terrorism, they imagine chaos. They imagine revenge.Impulse.Irrational actors. That image is comforting. Because it suggests these groups are…
Read briefThe Watch FloorNext Door Threats: How Terrorist Safehouses Operate in Plain SightFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Next Door Threats: How Terrorist Safehouses Operate in Plain Sight
Most terrorist attacks in the United States and Western countries do not begin with violence. They begin quietly, inside ordinary apartment buildings and rental…
Read briefThe Watch FloorLebanon in the Regional CrosshairsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Lebanon in the Regional Crosshairs
Intro When we talk about the Middle East, countries like Syria, Iran, and Israel dominate headlines. Lebanon? Not so much. And yet, today Lebanon…
Read briefThe Watch FloorISIS Regeneration Risk in SyriaFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
ISIS Regeneration Risk in Syria
The release and transfer of ISIS-affiliated women from detention facilities in Syria by forces aligned with Abu Mohammad al-Julani represents a material and underrecognized…
Read briefThe Watch FloorInside Somali Fraud: How the System Was GamedFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Inside Somali Fraud: How the System Was Gamed
Recent federal prosecutions and government actions have exposed a broad pattern of fraud tied to Somali-linked networks exploiting U.S. taxpayer-funded programs. While individual cases…
Read briefThe Watch FloorIran in RevoltFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Iran in Revolt
Iran is experiencing one of the most widespread and sustained protest waves in recent years. Beginning in late December 2025, demonstrations quickly expanded from…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Mind of the Lone WolfFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Mind of the Lone Wolf
"They act alone. They plan in silence, hidden behind screens, isolated from the world around them. No meetings, no hierarchies, no orders from above…
Read briefThe Watch FloorSomaliland: Recognition, Reality, and the Cost of Rewarding Failure ElsewhereFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Somaliland: Recognition, Reality, and the Cost of Rewarding Failure Elsewhere
Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland formalizes a political reality that has existed since 1991 and highlights a long-standing gap between international policy and what…
Read briefThe Watch FloorFrom Strategic Warning to Strategic DriftFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
From Strategic Warning to Strategic Drift
As 2026 begins, it is necessary to acknowledge a fundamental reality: the counterterrorism recalibration called for at the start of 2025 did not occur.…
Read briefThe Watch FloorSymbolic Significance of 2 Rajab 1447 in Al-Qaeda’s Homeland PlottingFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Symbolic Significance of 2 Rajab 1447 in Al-Qaeda’s Homeland Plotting
Al-Qaeda senior operatives and external operations planners, under the direction of the organization’s second generation of bin Laden leadership, originally plotted the next phase…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAQIS Video Assessment: The Ten Seconds That MatterFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
AQIS Video Assessment: The Ten Seconds That Matter
AQIS released a six-minute video on December 6th titled From Dasht-e-Leili to the Victory of Kabul. Most people will focus on the usual imagery—martyrs,…
Read briefThe Watch FloorBlind Vetting: The Truth About Afghanistan’s Incomplete and Compromised BiometricsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Blind Vetting: The Truth About Afghanistan’s Incomplete and Compromised Biometrics
An examination of gaps in Afghan biometric data, the consequences for post-2021 vetting, and the risks created when identity systems are incomplete or compromised.
Read briefThe Watch FloorDeception as DoctrineFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Deception as Doctrine
For groups like al-Qaeda, deception is not optional, it is a weapon of war. Their doctrine makes this clear. Under concepts such as taqiyya…
Read briefThe Watch FloorHoliday Season Threat Awareness and the Role of Public VigilanceFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Holiday Season Threat Awareness and the Role of Public Vigilance
As the holiday season approaches, the security environment always grows more vulnerable to threat activity. Large gatherings, predictable public events, and symbolic religious observances…
Read briefThe Watch FloorModern Exploitation in the Digital AgeFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Modern Exploitation in the Digital Age
Over the past decade, the battleground of child sexual exploitation has shifted from physical trafficking routes to digital terrain. Smartphones, encrypted messaging apps, and…
Read briefThe Watch FloorTargeted Killings of Christians Across AfricaFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Targeted Killings of Christians Across Africa
Between January and October 2025, Africa has witnessed a sharp escalation in targeted killings of Christians, with concentrated violence in the Democratic Republic of…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAbbey Gate’s Red Umbrella: A Beacon Then, a Warning NowFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Abbey Gate’s Red Umbrella: A Beacon Then, a Warning Now
The red umbrella at Abbey Gate in Kabul, Afghanistan before the 2021 attack emerged as an unassuming yet vital beacon amidst the chaos of…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Myth of the Uneducated Terrorist: How Professional Skills Enable Operations in the WestFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Myth of the Uneducated Terrorist: How Professional Skills Enable Operations in the West
The stereotype that terrorists are poor, uneducated, and socially marginalized is not only inaccurate—it’s dangerous. Time and again, investigations reveal that many extremist operatives…
Read briefThe Watch FloorFBI Entrapment Operations and Terrorist Recruitment: A Dangerous Feedback LoopFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
FBI Entrapment Operations and Terrorist Recruitment: A Dangerous Feedback Loop
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) continues to rely on controversial entrapment operations as a core component of its counterterrorism strategy—a practice increasingly criticized…
Read briefThe Watch FloorSuicide Bomber Recognition and Response: Lessons from the EasyJet IncidentFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Suicide Bomber Recognition and Response: Lessons from the EasyJet Incident
On July 27, 2025, Abhay Nayak, a 41-year-old passenger on an EasyJet flight from London to Glasgow, caused panic when he exited the lavatory…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Bin Laden Legacy and the Renewed Threat to the HomelandFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Bin Laden Legacy and the Renewed Threat to the Homeland
The Bin Laden family is actively shaping operational plans for a large-scale attack on the U.S. homeland—an attack intended to eclipse the strategic and…
Read briefThe Watch FloorFrom Afghanistan to Mogadishu: Hamza bin Laden’s Tactical Plotting — A U.S. Intelligence Blind SpotFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
From Afghanistan to Mogadishu: Hamza bin Laden’s Tactical Plotting — A U.S. Intelligence Blind Spot
Hamza bin Laden, the current leader of Al-Qaeda, continues to direct the group’s plotting and operations from Afghanistan with apparent impunity. Under his leadership,…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Formation and Objectives of the Islamic ArmyFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Formation and Objectives of the Islamic Army
The concept of an "Islamic Army" or "Army of Imam Mahdi" traces back to Osama bin Laden’s vision of uniting global terrorist groups under…
Read briefThe Watch FloorU.S. Hostages and the Cost of InactionFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
U.S. Hostages and the Cost of Inaction
New reporting from June 15th, 2025, has reignited outrage over the fate of missing American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria in 2012.…
Read briefThe Watch FloorZawahiri’s Deception Playbook: How al-Qaeda’s Mastermind Outsmarted the WestFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Zawahiri’s Deception Playbook: How al-Qaeda’s Mastermind Outsmarted the West
For over two decades, Ayman al-Zawahiri didn’t just evade capture—he ran circles around the West. His success wasn’t rooted in hiding in caves or…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Second Wave: Afghanistan’s Expanding Tier-Two Terrorist ThreatFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Second Wave: Afghanistan’s Expanding Tier-Two Terrorist Threat
While most of our attention has remained fixed on al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP), there is an increasingly dangerous layer…
Read briefThe Watch FloorKey Lessons from Saif al-Adel’s Strategic ThinkingFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Key Lessons from Saif al-Adel’s Strategic Thinking
As Saif al-Adel emerges as a key architect in al-Qaeda’s upcoming plots against the U.S. soil emanating from Afghanistan, it’s critical to examine his…
Read briefThe Watch FloorRiyadh Revisited: Lessons from a Complex Attack and Implications for Homeland DefenseFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Riyadh Revisited: Lessons from a Complex Attack and Implications for Homeland Defense
On this date in 2003, a series of coordinated suicide bombings struck residential compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, targeting Western nationals. Orchestrated by al-Qaeda,…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Pen That Could Kill: A Missed Warning from 2019Facts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Pen That Could Kill: A Missed Warning from 2019
A Watch Floor brief examining a low-signature threat uncovered in Turkey in 2019 and the broader challenge of recognizing emerging terrorist technologies before they…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe 2025 Kashmir Attack, Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Proxy Strategy, and Taliban-Enabled TerrorismFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The 2025 Kashmir Attack, Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Proxy Strategy, and Taliban-Enabled Terrorism
On April 22, 2025, several terrorists carried out a deadly assault primarily targeting Hindu tourists in the Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, in Jammu and…
Read briefThe Watch FloorWhat If? A Modernized Bojinka-Style Plot on U.S. SoilFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
What If? A Modernized Bojinka-Style Plot on U.S. Soil
Remembering Bojinka: In 1995, Operation Bojinka revealed how a handful of well-trained terrorists could coordinate multiple airliner bombings by exploiting gaps in aviation security.…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAFRICOM Chief Repeats ISIS Propaganda on Global Leadership ShiftFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
AFRICOM Chief Repeats ISIS Propaganda on Global Leadership Shift
In a stunning example of terrorist misinformation shaping U.S. policy discussions, the head of United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), General Michael E. Langley, testified…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAl-Shabaab’s Strategic Advance Toward MogadishuFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Al-Shabaab’s Strategic Advance Toward Mogadishu
Al-Qaeda is increasingly encouraged by the momentum of its affiliate in Somalia, al-Shabaab, as the group makes a calculated push toward Mogadishu. This is…
Read briefThe Watch FloorShielding Terror: How the Taliban Protects ISKP LeadershipFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Shielding Terror: How the Taliban Protects ISKP Leadership
The Taliban has systematically covered up the survival of multiple senior Islamic State-Khorasan (ISKP) figures while staging fake operations that falsely claim to target…
Read briefThe Watch FloorISKP Hospital Threat and Multi-Phase Attack Strategies in the U.S. HomelandFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
ISKP Hospital Threat and Multi-Phase Attack Strategies in the U.S. Homeland
Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP) has intensified its focus on targeting mid-tier cities within the United States, aiming to disrupt emergency services and sideline first…
Read briefThe Watch FloorJihadi Genealogy: Exploiting Family Ties for TargetingFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Jihadi Genealogy: Exploiting Family Ties for Targeting
The elimination of the head of the military council of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Abdullah Maki Musleh Al-Rifai, known…
Read briefThe Watch FloorExploiting Women for Operational Support: Al-Qaeda and the TalibanFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Exploiting Women for Operational Support: Al-Qaeda and the Taliban
An assessment of how al-Qaeda and the Taliban are expanding the roles women can play in recruitment, facilitation, intelligence gathering, propaganda, and operational support.
Read briefThe Watch FloorA Legacy of Terror – 2025 Marks Key Anniversaries of Major al-Qaeda PlotsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
A Legacy of Terror – 2025 Marks Key Anniversaries of Major al-Qaeda Plots
This year marks several critical anniversaries of al-Qaeda’s past attacks and failed plots, each of which has shaped the group’s evolving strategy and remains…
Read briefThe Watch FloorEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Strengthening Local CapabilitiesFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Enhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Strengthening Local Capabilities
With the federal government’s loss of extensive counterterrorism (CT) access overseas, its ability to detect and disrupt terrorist plots before they reach U.S. soil…
Read briefThe Watch FloorEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Expanding Regional ResiliencyFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Enhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Expanding Regional Resiliency
As we continue to build upon last week’s foundational strategies, it is clear that expanding specialized capabilities is a key pillar of strengthening local…
Read briefThe Watch FloorIntelligence Brief: The Threat of Terrorist Impersonation of Police, Military, and First Responders in U.S. PlotsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Intelligence Brief: The Threat of Terrorist Impersonation of Police, Military, and First Responders in U.S. Plots
Terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS have a long history of employing deceptive tactics, including the use of disguises, to carry out attacks. Both…
Read briefThe Watch FloorIntelligence Brief: Sweden’s Security Challenges and Immigration-Related FactorsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Intelligence Brief: Sweden’s Security Challenges and Immigration-Related Factors
In January 2025 alone, Sweden recorded 32 bombing incidents, marking a sharp increase in such attacks. This alarming trend is closely linked to criminal…
Read briefThe Watch FloorEvolution of al-Qaeda’s Invisible BombFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Evolution of al-Qaeda’s Invisible Bomb
Al-Qaeda’s interest in undetectable bombs gained traction in the early 2000s, particularly under the guidance of explosives experts seeking to exploit gaps in Western…
Read briefThe Watch FloorDuplicity and Misinformation: The Taliban’s Strategy to Garner U.S. Taxpayer DollarsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Duplicity and Misinformation: The Taliban’s Strategy to Garner U.S. Taxpayer Dollars
The U.S. government's acknowledgment of the Taliban's purported counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) has become a cornerstone of its post-withdrawal policy…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAn Evolved Counterterrorism Strategy for 2025Facts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
An Evolved Counterterrorism Strategy for 2025
As we begin the new year, our intelligence and law enforcement communities must recalibrate their approach to counterterrorism. The fragmented and siloed methods of…
Read briefThe Watch FloorIslamic State Facilitates Deals to Relocate Terrorists from Syrian Detention Camps to AfghanistanFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Islamic State Facilitates Deals to Relocate Terrorists from Syrian Detention Camps to Afghanistan
Islamic State leadership is interestingly making plans to relocate detainees from several detention camps in northeastern Syria, including the Al-Hol and Al-Roj camps. These…
Read briefThe Watch FloorMissing Radioactive Material: Facts Over FearFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Missing Radioactive Material: Facts Over Fear
When a small radioactive source went missing in New Jersey, headlines skewed toward worst-case scenarios, fueling public anxiety and conspiracy theories. Understanding the actual…
Read briefThe Watch FloorOngoing Threats to Christmas Markets and Potential Exploitation by Pro-Hamas GroupsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Ongoing Threats to Christmas Markets and Potential Exploitation by Pro-Hamas Groups
As the holiday season approaches, the risk of terrorist attacks targeting Christmas markets, particularly across Europe, appears heightened. This includes both traditional threats, primarily…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAl-Qaeda’s Call to Restore the Islamic CaliphateFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Al-Qaeda’s Call to Restore the Islamic Caliphate
Al-Qaeda and its newly formed Islamic Army have declared their intent to restore the Islamic caliphate. This concept refers to a unified Islamic state…
Read briefThe Watch FloorEmbassies Under Fire: Al-Qaeda’s Covert Attack StrategyFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Embassies Under Fire: Al-Qaeda’s Covert Attack Strategy
Al-Qaeda’s central leadership in Afghanistan is actively plotting attacks on embassies across Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. This continues their long-standing strategy of…
Read briefThe Watch FloorUnderestimating the Enemy: Lessons from Pearl Harbor and BeyondFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Underestimating the Enemy: Lessons from Pearl Harbor and Beyond
As we approach the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, it is crucial to reflect on the enduring lessons of that fateful day.…
Read briefThe Watch FloorUnderstanding the Origins and Rationale Behind the 2017 Travel RestrictionsFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Understanding the Origins and Rationale Behind the 2017 Travel Restrictions
Last Saturday, October 26th, after former President and current Republican nominee Donald J. Trump received endorsements from elements of Michigan’s Muslim community, misinformation resurfaced…
Read briefThe Watch FloorEvolving Tactics: Al-Qaeda’s Operational Lessons from Guantanamo Bay DetentionFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Evolving Tactics: Al-Qaeda’s Operational Lessons from Guantanamo Bay Detention
The years that our enemy, the high-value Al-Qaeda detainees, spent in Guantanamo Bay provided them with a unique opportunity to study their captors. These…
Read briefThe Watch FloorOne Year After October 7: Exposing the Gaps in U.S. IntelligenceFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
One Year After October 7: Exposing the Gaps in U.S. Intelligence
Today, on the one-year anniversary of the October 7th, 2023, attacks in Israel, the profound implications of this tragedy become increasingly clear. The attacks,…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Unintended Consequence: How U.S. Post-9/11 Strategy Strengthened al-QaedaFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Unintended Consequence: How U.S. Post-9/11 Strategy Strengthened al-Qaeda
In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the United States undertook an unprecedented restructuring of its counterterrorism and national security infrastructure. This response resulted…
Read briefThe Watch FloorAl-Qaeda: A Comparative Assessment of Its Global Reach and Capabilities from 2001 to TodayFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Al-Qaeda: A Comparative Assessment of Its Global Reach and Capabilities from 2001 to Today
August 28, 2024 Introduction This analysis compares al-Qaeda's leadership, global presence, operational capabilities, financial networks, ideological influence, relationship with the Taliban, recruitment strategies, and…
Read briefThe Watch FloorStrategic Implications of Abandoned U.S. and ISAF Military Bases in AfghanistanFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Strategic Implications of Abandoned U.S. and ISAF Military Bases in Afghanistan
The withdrawal of U.S. and International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) from Afghanistan in 2021 has left behind a network of military and intelligence bases…
Read briefThe Watch FloorLegacy of the 1983 Beirut Marine Barracks Bombings: Unfinished JusticeFacts over narratives
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Legacy of the 1983 Beirut Marine Barracks Bombings: Unfinished Justice
On July 30, 2024, senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr aka Hajj Mohsin was killed in an Israeli airstrike on a residential building in…
Read briefThe Watch FloorPotential Threats to the Paris Olympic GamesFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Potential Threats to the Paris Olympic Games
The upcoming Paris Olympic Games, scheduled to begin on July 26th, is preparing for a host of threats. While numerous actors could potentially disrupt…
Read briefThe Watch FloorThe Integration of al-Qaeda and the Taliban: A Unified FrontFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Integration of al-Qaeda and the Taliban: A Unified Front
The merging of al-Qaeda and the Taliban into a single, cohesive entity is a reality that U.S. policy and assessments have yet to fully…
Read briefThe Watch FloorU.S. Embassy Attack: The Curious Case of Qais FarrajFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
U.S. Embassy Attack: The Curious Case of Qais Farraj
Who, you ask? Let's explain. On June 5, 2024, the U.S. Embassy in Awker (Beirut), Lebanon, was surprised by an armed assault carried out…
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