Recognizing the Indicators of a Possible Suicide Bomber
A public-safety brief on observable warning signs, avoiding stereotypes, creating distance, and reporting a concern without confronting the person yourself.
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National Security
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Current assessments and intelligence-style work connected to this subject.
Washington Is Coming Back
The House is back after the August recess, the Senate returns for regular business September 14, and Washington is beginning to move again. The useful things…
Read brief10 Warnings Buried in Congress’s New 9/11 Report
Twenty-five years after 9/11, the House Intelligence Committee reviewed what the U.S. fixed, what remains unfinished, and where new intelligence gaps may be forming. These are…
Read briefThe Oil War Behind the Headlines
The fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and Washington’s new Venezuela oil agreement look like separate stories. Viewed through energy security, they are part of the…
Read briefThe Intelligence Value of a Plane Spotter
A Chinese university student studying in Canada is in U.S. custody after the FBI says he admitted photographing specific aircraft and airport facilities for a contact…
Read briefSomeone Is Studying Europe’s Defense Supply Chain
Just after midnight Monday, an alarm sounded at a WB Electronics facility in Skarżysko-Kamienna, Poland. Local reporting said a masked person carrying a backpack was captured…
Read brief85 Americans Missing in the Himalayas
A catastrophic glacier collapse along the Nepal-Tibet border left thousands dead or missing, including approximately 85 Americans. Many of the Americans were pilgrims traveling to or…
Read briefAbbey Gate: The Twelve Days Before the Bomb
Five years after the Abbey Gate bombing, this brief reconstructs the twelve days before the attack: the authorization, the bomber’s release and movement, the network around…
Read briefWhat the Heck Happened in Ceuta, Spain?
Tens of thousands of people converged on Ceuta after a legal ruling was distorted online, social media amplified the perception of an open border, and authorities…
Read briefFive Years After Kabul, History Is Repeating Itself
Five years after Kabul fell, Afghanistan should not be understood simply as the end of America’s longest war. It marked the beginning of another cycle in…
Read briefU.S.-Iran Negotiations: The Sixty-Day Clock
As of this week, the United States and Iran are operating under an interim memorandum of understanding reached following the 2026 conflict. Despite some headlines suggesting…
Read briefThe UFC Plot: The Ideology No One Wants to Talk About
Opening Welcome to The Watch Floor. I'm Sarah Adams. Over the couple of last weeks, you've probably heard about the alleged plot against UFC Freedom 250.…
Read briefDo Not Put Al-Qaeda’s Friends in Congress
Welcome to The Watch Floor. I’m Sarah Adams. Today we are talking about Adam Hamawy HAM ah Wee, the Democratic nominee in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional…
Read briefThe Chinese Border Surge Is Over. The Network It Built Is Not.
The surge of Chinese nationals arriving at America's borders between 2021 and 2024 has largely disappeared from the headlines. Border encounters have fallen dramatically across both…
Read briefEbola Returns: What Worked Last Time and What Didn’t
The return of Ebola to international headlines is a reminder that some threats never disappear; they simply fade from public attention until conditions allow them to…
Read briefThe New Domestic Threat Category Nobody Saw Coming
Wired article: https://www.wired.com/story/us-law-enforcement-warns-of-anti-tech-extremism/ Over the last several years, the United States has seen a massive expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Huge data centers are being built…
Read briefCuba at the Breaking Point: Law, Pressure, and the Next Phase of U.S. Strategy
The recent federal indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue is being…
Read briefOperation Tidal Wave
Operation Tidal Wave was not simply a cruise ship scandal. It was a clear example of how modern digital exploitation investigations are now conducted: quietly, internationally,…
Read briefPre-Attack Indicators: What We Could Have Seen Before the White House Correspondents Dinner Incident
Intro Everyone is talking about the aftermath of the attack at the White House Correspondents Dinner—the response, the security questions, and what failed in the moment.…
Read briefLogistics as a Vulnerability
Fifteen agricultural spray drones were stolen from a logistics warehouse in New Jersey around March 24, 2026. The removal did not involve forced entry or overt…
Read briefWhat People Get Wrong About Intelligence Work
So I wanted to do a more relaxed episode on this because I think there’s a pretty big gap between what people think intelligence work is…
Read briefFailure of Islamabad Talks and Implications for the Two-Week Ceasefire
The recent U.S.–Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without an agreement after roughly 21 hours of direct discussions. The talks, facilitated by Pakistan and involving senior U.S.…
Read briefPalm Sunday in the Shadow of Persecution Christians Under Fire Around the World
Palm Sunday, observed around the world, is meant to be a time of peace, reflection, and faith. But this year, in multiple regions, it unfolded in…
Read briefWhat They Said and What They Didn’t: Breaking Down the Terrorism Threat
I just read the bolded sections of the new ODNI Threat Assessment that can be found here starting on page 7 under the Terrorism section, then…
Read briefDecision Logic Behind Terrorist Attacks
Intro When most people think about the Decision Logic Behind Terrorist Attacks they think about ideology. They think belief comes first—and that belief drives everything that…
Read briefLooking for Terrorism the Wrong Way
A recent U.S. Army counterintelligence and antiterrorism awareness message reminded personnel to remain vigilant and report suspicious behavior that could threaten U.S. forces, installations, or infrastructure.…
Read briefChinese Intrusion into an FBI Surveillance Metadata System
Recent reporting indicates that suspicious activity was detected within a system connected to surveillance metadata used by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Investigators believe the intrusion…
Read briefAI Isn’t Just a Tool — It’s Becoming a Cyber Espionage Weapon
Here’s a couple clips on this: https://youtu.be/xKfVxHyzB3g?si=vtzJPCSu_89apTLv https://youtu.be/JNn9hnPYXa4?si=trayGOQGVuMx1b0m Intro We’ve all heard the warnings about artificial intelligence — deepfakes, job automation, ethical debates. But here’s the…
Read briefThe Signs Most People Miss Before Attacks
A Practical Guide to Recognizing PreAttack Behavior Anyone Can Spot Intro: When people think of terrorism, the images that come to mind are usually dramatic: explosions,…
Read briefTesting the System: Russia’s Parcel Bomb Probes Inside Europe’s Shipping Network
A cardboard box rarely looks like a weapon. That is exactly what makes this story worth paying attention to. European investigators recently uncovered a covert operation…
Read briefEspionage Off the Radar: Weird, Wild, and Under-Reported Spy Operations
Today, I want to take you into a world most people never hear about—espionage that’s weird, audacious, and happening right now… but off the radar in…
Read briefPost-Iranian Strikes: A Threat Assessment
We are at a consequential moment. Credible indicators suggest Ali Khamenei is likely dead, creating a destabilizing shock within the Iranian regime. Leadership transitions in hardline…
Read briefSomeone Has to Own It: State-Level Counterintelligence & Counterterrorism
There is a structural gap in how we handle counterintelligence and counterterrorism in this country. We default to the federal government, the Federal Bureau of Investigation…
Read briefHeld Hostage: America’s Citizens as Political Leverage
In today’s episode we’re talking about Hostage Diplomacy — not in abstract terms, but through the real human lives of Americans held hostage abroad — and…
Read briefThe Underrated Threat: When a Resume Becomes a Weapon
For two decades, Western cybersecurity strategy focused on infrastructure. We hardened networks, segmented environments, deployed detection systems, and institutionalized zero trust frameworks. And it worked to…
Read briefHavana Syndrome: The Attacks Didn’t Start in Havana
Intro Let’s start by getting something out of the way. This episode is about Havana Syndrome — and it is not about stress.It’s not about mass…
Read briefHeroic Operations: How the BLA Is Running a Phased Terrorist Campaign
Over the weekend, Pakistan’s Baluchistan province experienced a coordinated wave of terrorist attacks spanning multiple cities. What is critical to understand from the outset is: These…
Read briefThe Terrorist Playbook: Saif al-Adel’s 33 Strategies and How to Think Like the Enemy
Intro When most people think about terrorism, they imagine chaos. They imagine revenge.Impulse.Irrational actors. That image is comforting. Because it suggests these groups are reckless —…
Read briefLebanon in the Regional Crosshairs
Intro When we talk about the Middle East, countries like Syria, Iran, and Israel dominate headlines. Lebanon? Not so much. And yet, today Lebanon sits at…
Read briefInside Somali Fraud: How the System Was Gamed
Recent federal prosecutions and government actions have exposed a broad pattern of fraud tied to Somali-linked networks exploiting U.S. taxpayer-funded programs. While individual cases are often…
Read briefThe Mind of the Lone Wolf
"They act alone. They plan in silence, hidden behind screens, isolated from the world around them. No meetings, no hierarchies, no orders from above — just…
Read briefFrom Strategic Warning to Strategic Drift
As 2026 begins, it is necessary to acknowledge a fundamental reality: the counterterrorism recalibration called for at the start of 2025 did not occur. Despite clear…
Read briefSymbolic Significance of 2 Rajab 1447 in Al-Qaeda’s Homeland Plotting
Al-Qaeda senior operatives and external operations planners, under the direction of the organization’s second generation of bin Laden leadership, originally plotted the next phase of U.S.…
Read briefBlind Vetting: The Truth About Afghanistan’s Incomplete and Compromised Biometrics
An examination of gaps in Afghan biometric data, the consequences for post-2021 vetting, and the risks created when identity systems are incomplete or compromised.
Read briefAbbey Gate’s Red Umbrella: A Beacon Then, a Warning Now
The red umbrella at Abbey Gate in Kabul, Afghanistan before the 2021 attack emerged as an unassuming yet vital beacon amidst the chaos of the evacuation.…
Read briefThe Bin Laden Legacy and the Renewed Threat to the Homeland
The Bin Laden family is actively shaping operational plans for a large-scale attack on the U.S. homeland—an attack intended to eclipse the strategic and symbolic impact…
Read briefU.S. Hostages and the Cost of Inaction
New reporting from June 15th, 2025, has reignited outrage over the fate of missing American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in Syria in 2012. According to…
Read briefThe Second Wave: Afghanistan’s Expanding Tier-Two Terrorist Threat
While most of our attention has remained fixed on al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP), there is an increasingly dangerous layer of transnational…
Read briefKey Lessons from Saif al-Adel’s Strategic Thinking
As Saif al-Adel emerges as a key architect in al-Qaeda’s upcoming plots against the U.S. soil emanating from Afghanistan, it’s critical to examine his strategic mindset.…
Read briefRiyadh Revisited: Lessons from a Complex Attack and Implications for Homeland Defense
On this date in 2003, a series of coordinated suicide bombings struck residential compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, targeting Western nationals. Orchestrated by al-Qaeda, these attacks…
Read briefThe Pen That Could Kill: A Missed Warning from 2019
A Watch Floor brief examining a low-signature threat uncovered in Turkey in 2019 and the broader challenge of recognizing emerging terrorist technologies before they become familiar.
Read briefWhat If? A Modernized Bojinka-Style Plot on U.S. Soil
Remembering Bojinka: In 1995, Operation Bojinka revealed how a handful of well-trained terrorists could coordinate multiple airliner bombings by exploiting gaps in aviation security. Law enforcement…
Read briefAl-Shabaab’s Strategic Advance Toward Mogadishu
Al-Qaeda is increasingly encouraged by the momentum of its affiliate in Somalia, al-Shabaab, as the group makes a calculated push toward Mogadishu. This is not merely…
Read briefISKP Hospital Threat and Multi-Phase Attack Strategies in the U.S. Homeland
Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP) has intensified its focus on targeting mid-tier cities within the United States, aiming to disrupt emergency services and sideline first responders. Hospitals…
Read briefJihadi Genealogy: Exploiting Family Ties for Targeting
The elimination of the head of the military council of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Abdullah Maki Musleh Al-Rifai, known as Abu…
Read briefA Legacy of Terror – 2025 Marks Key Anniversaries of Major al-Qaeda Plots
This year marks several critical anniversaries of al-Qaeda’s past attacks and failed plots, each of which has shaped the group’s evolving strategy and remains a blueprint…
Read briefEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Strengthening Local Capabilities
With the federal government’s loss of extensive counterterrorism (CT) access overseas, its ability to detect and disrupt terrorist plots before they reach U.S. soil has been…
Read briefEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Expanding Regional Resiliency
As we continue to build upon last week’s foundational strategies, it is clear that expanding specialized capabilities is a key pillar of strengthening local counterterrorism efforts.…
Read briefIntelligence Brief: The Threat of Terrorist Impersonation of Police, Military, and First Responders in U.S. Plots
Terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS have a long history of employing deceptive tactics, including the use of disguises, to carry out attacks. Both groups have…
Read briefIntelligence Brief: Sweden’s Security Challenges and Immigration-Related Factors
In January 2025 alone, Sweden recorded 32 bombing incidents, marking a sharp increase in such attacks. This alarming trend is closely linked to criminal gang activity,…
Read briefEvolution of al-Qaeda’s Invisible Bomb
Al-Qaeda’s interest in undetectable bombs gained traction in the early 2000s, particularly under the guidance of explosives experts seeking to exploit gaps in Western security systems.…
Read briefDuplicity and Misinformation: The Taliban’s Strategy to Garner U.S. Taxpayer Dollars
The U.S. government's acknowledgment of the Taliban's purported counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) has become a cornerstone of its post-withdrawal policy in Afghanistan.…
Read briefAn Evolved Counterterrorism Strategy for 2025
As we begin the new year, our intelligence and law enforcement communities must recalibrate their approach to counterterrorism. The fragmented and siloed methods of bucketing individual…
Read briefMissing Radioactive Material: Facts Over Fear
When a small radioactive source went missing in New Jersey, headlines skewed toward worst-case scenarios, fueling public anxiety and conspiracy theories. Understanding the actual facts behind…
Read briefOngoing Threats to Christmas Markets and Potential Exploitation by Pro-Hamas Groups
As the holiday season approaches, the risk of terrorist attacks targeting Christmas markets, particularly across Europe, appears heightened. This includes both traditional threats, primarily from terrorist…
Read briefEmbassies Under Fire: Al-Qaeda’s Covert Attack Strategy
Al-Qaeda’s central leadership in Afghanistan is actively plotting attacks on embassies across Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. This continues their long-standing strategy of targeting U.S.…
Read briefUnderestimating the Enemy: Lessons from Pearl Harbor and Beyond
As we approach the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, it is crucial to reflect on the enduring lessons of that fateful day. On December…
Read briefUnderstanding the Origins and Rationale Behind the 2017 Travel Restrictions
Last Saturday, October 26th, after former President and current Republican nominee Donald J. Trump received endorsements from elements of Michigan’s Muslim community, misinformation resurfaced regarding the…
Read briefThe Unintended Consequence: How U.S. Post-9/11 Strategy Strengthened al-Qaeda
In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the United States undertook an unprecedented restructuring of its counterterrorism and national security infrastructure. This response resulted in the…
Read briefStrategic Implications of Abandoned U.S. and ISAF Military Bases in Afghanistan
The withdrawal of U.S. and International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) from Afghanistan in 2021 has left behind a network of military and intelligence bases that offer…
Read briefLegacy of the 1983 Beirut Marine Barracks Bombings: Unfinished Justice
On July 30, 2024, senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr aka Hajj Mohsin was killed in an Israeli airstrike on a residential building in a Hezbollah…
Read briefPotential Threats to the Paris Olympic Games
The upcoming Paris Olympic Games, scheduled to begin on July 26th, is preparing for a host of threats. While numerous actors could potentially disrupt the Games,…
Read briefResearch & source work
Go deeper
Investigations, reports, letters, source work, and earlier research that add context.
Hamza bin Laden: Know Thy Enemy
An investigation into Hamza bin Laden’s survival, leadership role, family network, and place inside Al-Qaeda’s evolving structure.
Open investigationSleeper Cells Aren’t New—What’s New Is How These Groups Are Coming Together
An examination of how terrorist networks converge, coordinate, and adapt across organizational lines.
Read articleAl-Qaeda: 23 Years After 9/11 and Still a Global Threat
A look at Al-Qaeda’s endurance, adaptation, and expanded global reach more than two decades after September 11.
Read articleOutside publications
Published elsewhere
Magazine, journal, and outside publication work that belongs on this path.
Former CIA Officer Warns U.S. Shift Leaves Gaps as Al-Qaida Regroups in Afghanistan
Twenty-five years after 9/11, Sarah Adams discusses the danger of counterterrorism gaps as U.S. attention shifts toward great-power competition and al-Qaida rebuilds in Afghanistan.
Read the interviewThe 9/11 Files Show America Heard The Warning And Missed The War
Newly declassified 9/11 files show that warnings about Osama bin Laden and attacks inside the U.S. were reaching the highest levels of government years before September…
Read articleInside the Taliban Intelligence Operation That Killed Hasib Panjshiri
A reconstruction of the Taliban intelligence operation that penetrated resistance contacts, tracked Hasib Panjshiri’s movement, and led to the August 20 ambush in Salang.
Read investigationUkraine’s Spy Agencies Just Started Shooting at Each Other
A shootout between Ukraine’s SBU and military intelligence exposed something more dangerous than bureaucratic rivalry: a breakdown in operational deconfliction during an active intelligence war with…
Read articleCongress Just Admitted A Key 9/11 Security Gap Remains
Twenty-five years after 9/11, one of the border-security reforms recommended by the 9/11 Commission remains unfinished: a comprehensive biometric entry-exit system.
Read articleThe Next School Shooter May Have A Secret Assistant
Artificial intelligence is beginning to appear in school attacks and disrupted plots involving young people. The question is when scattered online behavior becomes a warning pattern…
Read articleThe Terrorist On Campus
A convicted ISIS supporter returned to Old Dominion University after federal prison. The university never knew his terrorism history until after he attacked an ROTC classroom,…
Read the investigationThe Cost of Ignoring Weak Informational Signals
Major crises rarely arrive without warning. The challenge is recognizing when scattered signals begin pointing in the same direction and acting while meaningful options still exist.
Read the articleNo Place to Hide: Warfare in the Age of Persistent Observation
What Ukraine is revealing about observation, concealment, adaptation, and the assumptions shaping the next war.
Read articleInside the Taliban’s New Military Formation on the Durand Line
A closer look at the Taliban’s evolving military posture, regional pressure, and the networks shaping the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Read articleKnow Thy Enemy: Former CIA Members Seeking Justice for Benghazi
An interview with Sarah Adams and Dave Benton about the investigation behind Benghazi: Know Thy Enemy and the continuing search for accountability.
Read the interviewThe Commons
Put it to work
Practical guidance from The Commons for turning lessons into capability.
Recognizing a Chemical Attack and What to Do
How to recognize a possible chemical release, create distance, reduce secondary contamination, decontaminate safely, and follow official instructions.
Read the briefRecognizing a Biological Attack and What to Do
Why biological incidents can be difficult to see at first, what public-health patterns matter, and how families and communities should respond to official guidance.
Read the briefDigital Hygiene for Law Enforcement and First Responders
A practical OPSEC brief for reducing doxxing exposure, protecting family information, hardening accounts, and responding when personal information is published online.
Read the brief10 Community Counterterrorism Readiness Priorities
A state-and-local readiness checklist covering communications, command, medical response, HAZMAT, hospitals, digital resilience, community expertise, private partners, and exercises.
Open the checklistTabletop Exercise: Capitol Complex Multi-Site Attack
A response-focused discussion exercise for testing unified command, credential verification, mass-casualty coordination, public messaging, continuity, and a second wave of incidents.
Run the exerciseTabletop Exercise: Johnstown Veterans Event and Multi-Site Attack
A discussion exercise for a smaller jurisdiction focused on a veterans event, limited resources, mutual aid, hospital surge, credential verification, and a second incident.
Run the exerciseTabletop Exercise: Tampa Armature Works and a Multi-Site Attack
A Tampa-area discussion exercise testing venue coordination, traffic and crowd movement, responder identity, hospital surge, misinformation, and a second wave of incidents.
Run the exerciseS-MARCH: A Calm Order for the First Minutes
A responsible memory aid for prioritizing safety, severe bleeding, airway, breathing, circulation, shock, head injury, and heat loss while help is coming.
Read the briefKeep Your Options Open
Practical guidance for moving safely through crowded events, transportation systems, transition points, and rapidly changing conditions.
Open briefWhen the Plan Stops Fitting
A brief on avoiding assumption lock, training with imperfect information, and building adaptation into preparedness.
Open briefOpen Doors, Thoughtful Plans
A layered, care-centered approach to safety for churches and other houses of worship.
Read the briefBooks & enduring work
From the shelves
Books, collaborations, and other enduring material that helps round out the subject.
Spies and Lies
Alex Joske examines Chinese intelligence and influence networks through open-source research into the Ministry of State Security and its global fronts.
View bookHouse of Huawei
Eva Dou traces how technology, industrial strategy, state power, intelligence collection, and one company became intertwined in geopolitical competition.
View bookThe Axis of Resistance
Hamidreza Azizi traces the rise, transformation, and fragmentation of Iran’s regional network and its struggle with Israel and the wider Middle East order.
View bookThe Troubled American Way of War
John Arquilla examines American military strategy from Hiroshima through the age of algorithms, including the growing role of information, computation, and AI.
View bookCode War
Allie Mellen examines how nation-state cyber operations function as instruments of power and how geopolitics shapes the digital battlefield.
View bookBook Review: The Gathering Storm — Own Your Readiness
The Gathering Storm, put together by the contributors of Task Force Pineapple, delivers a straightforward and urgent wake-up call about the ongoing and changing threats facing…
Read briefBenghazi: Know Thy Enemy
Sarah Adams and Dave “Boon” Benton reconstruct the Benghazi attacks, the network behind them, and the lessons that remain unfinished.
View bookThe President’s Book of Secrets
David Priess traces the history of the President’s Daily Brief and the people who have prepared and received it.
View bookHouse Select Committee on Benghazi
Contributed to the investigation and final report examining the events surrounding the 2012 terrorist attack in Benghazi.
View the final reportKeep the thread
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