Recognizing the Indicators of a Possible Suicide Bomber
A public-safety brief on observable warning signs, avoiding stereotypes, creating distance, and reporting a concern without confronting the person yourself.
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Terrorism & Extremism
Networks, plots, ideology, adaptation, and the warning signs that matter before an attack becomes a headline.
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Al-Qaeda Waited Five Years to Release This Hamza bin Laden Content
Al-Qaeda held footage of Hamza bin Laden recorded as Afghanistan was falling in August 2021 and waited more than five years to release it. The timing…
Read briefWhat AQIS Wants the Next Generation to Learn From 9/11
AQIS is using the 25th anniversary of 9/11 to explain to a younger audience why it believes America should remain the priority and to connect September…
Read briefThe ISIS Blind Spots We Keep Missing
ISIS’s global spokesman reportedly surfaced in a mud-brick house in Yemen. The bigger intelligence question may be what was recovered inside and what it reveals about…
Read briefAbbey Gate: The Twelve Days Before the Bomb
Five years after the Abbey Gate bombing, this brief reconstructs the twelve days before the attack: the authorization, the bomber’s release and movement, the network around…
Read briefFive Years After Kabul, History Is Repeating Itself
Five years after Kabul fell, Afghanistan should not be understood simply as the end of America’s longest war. It marked the beginning of another cycle in…
Read briefThe Taliban’s Northern Fault Line
Growing anti-Taliban resistance in northern Afghanistan is doing more than testing the battlefield. It is exposing tensions between the movement’s southern Pashtun leadership and influential Tajik,…
Read briefThe UFC Plot: The Ideology No One Wants to Talk About
Opening Welcome to The Watch Floor. I'm Sarah Adams. Over the couple of last weeks, you've probably heard about the alleged plot against UFC Freedom 250.…
Read briefDo Not Put Al-Qaeda’s Friends in Congress
Welcome to The Watch Floor. I’m Sarah Adams. Today we are talking about Adam Hamawy HAM ah Wee, the Democratic nominee in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional…
Read briefAn Evolved Counterterrorism Strategy
A framework for moving beyond group-by-group disruption toward the shared ecosystems, facilitators, logistics, finance, and technical support that allow threats to regenerate.
Read on the siteWhat They Said and What They Didn’t: Breaking Down the Terrorism Threat
I just read the bolded sections of the new ODNI Threat Assessment that can be found here starting on page 7 under the Terrorism section, then…
Read briefThe Patterns Before the Blast: What Terrorists Do Before They Strike
When people think about terrorism, they picture the moment of impact — the explosion, the gunfire, the chaos. But that moment is the final phase of…
Read briefDecision Logic Behind Terrorist Attacks
Intro When most people think about the Decision Logic Behind Terrorist Attacks they think about ideology. They think belief comes first—and that belief drives everything that…
Read briefLooking for Terrorism the Wrong Way
A recent U.S. Army counterintelligence and antiterrorism awareness message reminded personnel to remain vigilant and report suspicious behavior that could threaten U.S. forces, installations, or infrastructure.…
Read briefSomeone Has to Own It: State-Level Counterintelligence & Counterterrorism
There is a structural gap in how we handle counterintelligence and counterterrorism in this country. We default to the federal government, the Federal Bureau of Investigation…
Read briefHeroic Operations: How the BLA Is Running a Phased Terrorist Campaign
Over the weekend, Pakistan’s Baluchistan province experienced a coordinated wave of terrorist attacks spanning multiple cities. What is critical to understand from the outset is: These…
Read briefThe Terrorist Playbook: Saif al-Adel’s 33 Strategies and How to Think Like the Enemy
Intro When most people think about terrorism, they imagine chaos. They imagine revenge.Impulse.Irrational actors. That image is comforting. Because it suggests these groups are reckless —…
Read briefNext Door Threats: How Terrorist Safehouses Operate in Plain Sight
Most terrorist attacks in the United States and Western countries do not begin with violence. They begin quietly, inside ordinary apartment buildings and rental homes that…
Read briefISIS Regeneration Risk in Syria
The release and transfer of ISIS-affiliated women from detention facilities in Syria by forces aligned with Abu Mohammad al-Julani represents a material and underrecognized security threat.…
Read briefSomaliland: Recognition, Reality, and the Cost of Rewarding Failure Elsewhere
Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland formalizes a political reality that has existed since 1991 and highlights a long-standing gap between international policy and what actually happens…
Read briefFrom Strategic Warning to Strategic Drift
As 2026 begins, it is necessary to acknowledge a fundamental reality: the counterterrorism recalibration called for at the start of 2025 did not occur. Despite clear…
Read briefDeception as Doctrine
For groups like al-Qaeda, deception is not optional, it is a weapon of war. Their doctrine makes this clear. Under concepts such as taqiyya and kitman,…
Read briefHoliday Season Threat Awareness and the Role of Public Vigilance
As the holiday season approaches, the security environment always grows more vulnerable to threat activity. Large gatherings, predictable public events, and symbolic religious observances provide both…
Read briefTargeted Killings of Christians Across Africa
Between January and October 2025, Africa has witnessed a sharp escalation in targeted killings of Christians, with concentrated violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),…
Read briefThe Myth of the Uneducated Terrorist: How Professional Skills Enable Operations in the West
The stereotype that terrorists are poor, uneducated, and socially marginalized is not only inaccurate—it’s dangerous. Time and again, investigations reveal that many extremist operatives are highly…
Read briefFBI Entrapment Operations and Terrorist Recruitment: A Dangerous Feedback Loop
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) continues to rely on controversial entrapment operations as a core component of its counterterrorism strategy—a practice increasingly criticized for targeting…
Read briefSuicide Bomber Recognition and Response: Lessons from the EasyJet Incident
On July 27, 2025, Abhay Nayak, a 41-year-old passenger on an EasyJet flight from London to Glasgow, caused panic when he exited the lavatory mid-flight shouting…
Read briefZawahiri’s Deception Playbook: How al-Qaeda’s Mastermind Outsmarted the West
For over two decades, Ayman al-Zawahiri didn’t just evade capture—he ran circles around the West. His success wasn’t rooted in hiding in caves or radio silence;…
Read briefThe Second Wave: Afghanistan’s Expanding Tier-Two Terrorist Threat
While most of our attention has remained fixed on al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP), there is an increasingly dangerous layer of transnational…
Read briefThe Pen That Could Kill: A Missed Warning from 2019
A Watch Floor brief examining a low-signature threat uncovered in Turkey in 2019 and the broader challenge of recognizing emerging terrorist technologies before they become familiar.
Read briefThe 2025 Kashmir Attack, Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Proxy Strategy, and Taliban-Enabled Terrorism
On April 22, 2025, several terrorists carried out a deadly assault primarily targeting Hindu tourists in the Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, in Jammu and Kashmir, India.…
Read briefAFRICOM Chief Repeats ISIS Propaganda on Global Leadership Shift
In a stunning example of terrorist misinformation shaping U.S. policy discussions, the head of United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), General Michael E. Langley, testified before the…
Read briefShielding Terror: How the Taliban Protects ISKP Leadership
The Taliban has systematically covered up the survival of multiple senior Islamic State-Khorasan (ISKP) figures while staging fake operations that falsely claim to target the group.…
Read briefISKP Hospital Threat and Multi-Phase Attack Strategies in the U.S. Homeland
Islamic State—Khorasan Province (ISKP) has intensified its focus on targeting mid-tier cities within the United States, aiming to disrupt emergency services and sideline first responders. Hospitals…
Read briefJihadi Genealogy: Exploiting Family Ties for Targeting
The elimination of the head of the military council of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Abdullah Maki Musleh Al-Rifai, known as Abu…
Read briefExploiting Women for Operational Support: Al-Qaeda and the Taliban
An assessment of how al-Qaeda and the Taliban are expanding the roles women can play in recruitment, facilitation, intelligence gathering, propaganda, and operational support.
Read briefA Legacy of Terror – 2025 Marks Key Anniversaries of Major al-Qaeda Plots
This year marks several critical anniversaries of al-Qaeda’s past attacks and failed plots, each of which has shaped the group’s evolving strategy and remains a blueprint…
Read briefEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Strengthening Local Capabilities
With the federal government’s loss of extensive counterterrorism (CT) access overseas, its ability to detect and disrupt terrorist plots before they reach U.S. soil has been…
Read briefEnhancing Counterterrorism Capabilities at the State and Local Level: Expanding Regional Resiliency
As we continue to build upon last week’s foundational strategies, it is clear that expanding specialized capabilities is a key pillar of strengthening local counterterrorism efforts.…
Read briefIntelligence Brief: The Threat of Terrorist Impersonation of Police, Military, and First Responders in U.S. Plots
Terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS have a long history of employing deceptive tactics, including the use of disguises, to carry out attacks. Both groups have…
Read briefEvolution of al-Qaeda’s Invisible Bomb
Al-Qaeda’s interest in undetectable bombs gained traction in the early 2000s, particularly under the guidance of explosives experts seeking to exploit gaps in Western security systems.…
Read briefDuplicity and Misinformation: The Taliban’s Strategy to Garner U.S. Taxpayer Dollars
The U.S. government's acknowledgment of the Taliban's purported counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) has become a cornerstone of its post-withdrawal policy in Afghanistan.…
Read briefAn Evolved Counterterrorism Strategy for 2025
As we begin the new year, our intelligence and law enforcement communities must recalibrate their approach to counterterrorism. The fragmented and siloed methods of bucketing individual…
Read briefIslamic State Facilitates Deals to Relocate Terrorists from Syrian Detention Camps to Afghanistan
Islamic State leadership is interestingly making plans to relocate detainees from several detention camps in northeastern Syria, including the Al-Hol and Al-Roj camps. These plans reflect…
Read briefAl-Qaeda’s Call to Restore the Islamic Caliphate
Al-Qaeda and its newly formed Islamic Army have declared their intent to restore the Islamic caliphate. This concept refers to a unified Islamic state governed by…
Read briefEmbassies Under Fire: Al-Qaeda’s Covert Attack Strategy
Al-Qaeda’s central leadership in Afghanistan is actively plotting attacks on embassies across Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. This continues their long-standing strategy of targeting U.S.…
Read briefEvolving Tactics: Al-Qaeda’s Operational Lessons from Guantanamo Bay Detention
The years that our enemy, the high-value Al-Qaeda detainees, spent in Guantanamo Bay provided them with a unique opportunity to study their captors. These terrorists were…
Read briefPotential Threats to the Paris Olympic Games
The upcoming Paris Olympic Games, scheduled to begin on July 26th, is preparing for a host of threats. While numerous actors could potentially disrupt the Games,…
Read briefThe Integration of al-Qaeda and the Taliban: A Unified Front
The merging of al-Qaeda and the Taliban into a single, cohesive entity is a reality that U.S. policy and assessments have yet to fully acknowledge. From…
Read briefU.S. Embassy Attack: The Curious Case of Qais Farraj
Who, you ask? Let's explain. On June 5, 2024, the U.S. Embassy in Awker (Beirut), Lebanon, was surprised by an armed assault carried out by terrorist…
Read briefResearch & source work
Go deeper
Investigations, reports, letters, source work, and earlier research that add context.
Northern Taliban Target Deck
A visual target deck mapping key non-Pashtun Taliban commanders, their networks, command structures, and foreign-jihadist connections.
Read on the siteISIS: Know Thy Enemy
A downloadable open-source investigation examining the organization, its networks, and the threat it continues to present.
Open investigationHamza bin Laden: Know Thy Enemy
An investigation into Hamza bin Laden’s survival, leadership role, family network, and place inside Al-Qaeda’s evolving structure.
Open investigationAbbey Gate: Know Thy Enemy 2.0
An expanded investigation into the attack at Abbey Gate, the network behind it, and the compressed plotting window that preceded it.
Open investigationSleeper Cells Aren’t New—What’s New Is How These Groups Are Coming Together
An examination of how terrorist networks converge, coordinate, and adapt across organizational lines.
Read articleISKP: Know Thy Enemy
A detailed examination of Islamic State Khorasan Province, its networks, and the Taliban’s public claims about fighting it.
Open investigationIn the Enemy’s Pocket: Al-Qaeda’s Lord of War
An investigation into the people, relationships, and facilitation networks that sustain Al-Qaeda’s operational reach.
Open investigationOctober 7th: Know Thy Enemy
An investigation into the warnings, networks, and operational relationships surrounding the October 7 attacks.
Open investigationAl-Qaeda: 23 Years After 9/11 and Still a Global Threat
A look at Al-Qaeda’s endurance, adaptation, and expanded global reach more than two decades after September 11.
Read articleThe Benghazi Mortar Team’s Identities Revealed for the First Time
An investigation identifying members of the mortar team responsible for the attack on the CIA Annex in Benghazi.
Read articleOn 9/11 We Should Also Remember the Benghazi Attack and the Planners Still at Large
A call to remember the Benghazi victims by continuing the work of identifying and pursuing the planners responsible.
Read articleOutside publications
Published elsewhere
Magazine, journal, and outside publication work that belongs on this path.
Former CIA Officer Warns U.S. Shift Leaves Gaps as Al-Qaida Regroups in Afghanistan
Twenty-five years after 9/11, Sarah Adams discusses the danger of counterterrorism gaps as U.S. attention shifts toward great-power competition and al-Qaida rebuilds in Afghanistan.
Read the interviewThe 9/11 Files Show America Heard The Warning And Missed The War
Newly declassified 9/11 files show that warnings about Osama bin Laden and attacks inside the U.S. were reaching the highest levels of government years before September…
Read articleThe Terrorist On Campus
A convicted ISIS supporter returned to Old Dominion University after federal prison. The university never knew his terrorism history until after he attacked an ROTC classroom,…
Read the investigationThe Signals Before the Storm
What Al-Qaeda’s public behavior can tell us about organizational confidence, strategic warning, and meaningful change.
Read articleAfghanistan’s Resistance Is No Longer Fighting Only the Taliban
Recent fighting suggests sustained resistance pressure is reshaping the Taliban’s military campaign and its use of allied jihadist organizations.
Read articleWhy the Return of Tarnak Farm Matters
The rebuilding of a historic Al-Qaeda institution offers one of the clearest indicators of the organization’s resurgence.
Read articleISIS and the Dream of Returning to Libya
An examination of the Islamic State’s effort to reposition leadership and revive its operations in Libya.
Read articleSyria’s Al-Qaeda-Linked Regime Targets Kurds in Ethnic Cleansing
An analysis featuring Sarah Adams on the actors, networks, and warning signs surrounding violence against Kurdish communities in Syria.
Read the interviewSources: Taliban May Have Set Up Former Afghan Intel Officer
John Rossomando quotes Sarah Adams regarding Jaan Shah Safi, Taliban intelligence reporting to the United States, ISKP, and the danger of Taliban disinformation.
Read the articleThe Commons
Put it to work
Practical guidance from The Commons for turning lessons into capability.
Hidden Communications Terrorists Use
A recognition brief on coded language, metadata, steganography, obfuscated text, and ordinary digital platforms that can be abused for clandestine communication.
Read the briefEnhancing Airport Security – Your Role in Mitigating Terrorist Threats
Terrorist threats are expected to spike this year, with groups like al-Qaeda continuing to prioritize aviation and crowded spaces. Suicide vests remain a favored method of…
Read the briefBooks & enduring work
From the shelves
Books, collaborations, and other enduring material that helps round out the subject.
Why Al-Qaeda Killed Ahmad Shah Massoud Before 9/11
Two days before September 11, al-Qaeda assassinated Ahmad Shah Massoud. Sarah joins Ahmad Massoud to examine why his father posed such a threat to al-Qaeda and…
Watch on YouTubeBlack Ops
Ric Prado recounts a career spanning the Cold War, the Bin Laden Task Force, and the CIA’s Special Activities Group.
View bookBenghazi: Know Thy Enemy
Sarah Adams and Dave “Boon” Benton reconstruct the Benghazi attacks, the network behind them, and the lessons that remain unfinished.
View bookFirst Casualty
Toby Harnden tells the story of Team Alpha, Mike Spann, and the first CIA mission sent into Afghanistan after September 11.
View bookThe Targeter
Nada Bakos recounts the analytical and targeting work behind the campaign against Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
View bookBeirut Rules
Fred Burton and Samuel M. Katz examine the abduction and murder of CIA Station Chief William Buckley and the rise of Hezbollah’s war against America.
View bookSee No Evil
Robert Baer’s memoir of CIA field work in the Middle East and the institutional choices that shaped the fight against terrorism.
View bookKeep the thread
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