The upcoming Paris Olympic Games, scheduled to begin on July 26th, is preparing for a host of threats. While numerous actors could potentially disrupt the Games, the focus here is on the two most likely and capable enemies: the terrorist group Islamic State (ISIS) and the nation-state of Russia. Both ISIS and Russia view the Paris Olympic Games as prime targets, leveraging the event's global prominence to advance their agendas, be it through violence or disruption.
ISIS
ISIS has consistently issued propaganda against high-profile events, including threats to the Rio Olympics in 2016. As the Games approach, ISIS propaganda and threats continue to evolve. Initially, ISIS urged lone wolves to attack Olympic event crowds using vehicle rammings, knives, guns, or improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The group has since escalated to advocating drone attacks, providing manuals on how to execute such operations. Recently, ISIS expanded on this messaging by threatening to attack the opening ceremony with drones. The group has also inspired an attacker; just last month, an 18-year-old Chechen terrorist was arrested in France for planning an ISIS-inspired attack at Geoffroy-Guichard Stadium during the Olympics.
ISIS holds longstanding grievances against France, stemming from military interventions in countries where terrorists attempted to gain a foothold in Africa (e.g., Operation Serval in Mali), perceived Islamophobia by Islamists in France, and support for governments opposed by ISIS. The publication of cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad, and the resulting Charlie Hebdo attack, further fuels the animosity showcased by multiple terrorist groups in its messaging against France. The 2015 coordinated ISIS attack in Paris starkly demonstrated their capability and determination to target high-profile locations in France. Both ISIS and its resurgent affiliate, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), are believed to maintain operational capability to conduct terrorist attacks within France.
Russia
Russia's potential to disrupt the Paris Olympics stems from historical actions and recent geopolitical tensions, manifesting in cyberattacks, espionage against foreign dignitaries, and misinformation campaigns. Russia harbors resentment towards France for its military support against Russian actions in Ukraine. Additionally, Russia is aggrieved by the Olympic Committee's decision to ban its athletes from competing under the Russian flag. Russia has also conducted cyber operations during previous Olympic Games:
2016 Rio Olympics: Russian hackers targeted the World Anti-Doping Agency, releasing confidential medical information to discredit the agency after Russia's doping scandal.
2018 PyeongChang Olympics: The "Olympic Destroyer" cyberattack disrupted internet and television services during the opening ceremony, in retaliation for Russia's ban from competing; as noted, a similar grievance the country harbors during this year’s Games.
Tokyo 2020 Olympics: Joint U.S. and U.K. efforts revealed that Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) conducted cyber reconnaissance against the Games to undermine their integrity of the International Olympic Committee.
Russia has already engaged in disseminating disinformation targeting American travelers to the Paris Games, falsely creating a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) warning to avoid the subway system due to terrorist threats. It was also reported from Russia that Olympic tickets were being returned by spectators due to fears of terrorist attacks during the games, which aimed to undermine French and Olympic Committee security preparations. Additionally, Russia is expected to exploit unrest in New Caledonia to sow further discontent, as France had dealt with riots in the region.
From the enemy's perspective, the Paris Olympic Games represent an unparalleled target for both ISIS and Russia, given their immense symbolic significance as a beacon of Western power and governance. ISIS aims to exploit the event to further its agenda of striking Western targets, recruiting lone wolves, and demonstrating operational capabilities from Southwest Asia despite territorial losses in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to undermine the credibility and security of the Games through cyber operations and disinformation, retaliating against perceived injustices and geopolitical rivalries related to its war in Ukraine.