As Saif al-Adel emerges as a key architect in al-Qaeda’s upcoming plots against the U.S. soil emanating from Afghanistan, it’s critical to examine his strategic mindset. Adel’s thinking draws heavily on adapted frameworks like his Islamist adaptation of The 33 Strategies of War, as discussed by Jane Doe in Episode #159. His approach is deliberate, layered, and deeply rooted in long-term ideological warfare. By examining his worldview, we can better anticipate and counter the threat he poses.
Lesson 1: Fear and Chaos as Primary Weapons
Adel uses fear as a strategic weapon to destabilize societies and governments. He aims to paralyze decision-making, sideline first responders, erode public trust, and fracture societal cohesion. High-profile, symbolic attacks—such as political assassinations or 9/11-style strikes—are carefully chosen to send a chilling message: if federal institutions can’t protect their own, how can they protect you?
This reflects Strategy 33: Response to Continuous Fear.
Lesson 2: Patience and Long-Term Vision
Adel plays the long game. He builds operations slowly, waiting for moments of maximum U.S. vulnerability. This echoes how al-Qaeda’s 1996 planning sessions in Khartoum laid the foundation for 9/11. Today’s plots follow a similar arc: clean operatives are seeded well in advance, ready to act when conditions align, while the information available to the U.S. government remains fragmented and polluted with misinformation—leading many to believe the group is incapable of planning another strategic surprise.This approach draws on Strategy 12: Comprehensive Strategy and Strategy 20: Ripe Fruits.
Lesson 3: Exploiting Internal Divisions Through Deception
Adel focuses on inflaming societal tensions—racial, political, and economic—with the goal of turning Americans against each other and weakening national unity and trust. He employs double-agent tactics, deception, and covert influence to deepen these divides. This includes planting misinformation within the U.S. government to obscure al-Qaeda’s activities in Afghanistan, sow discord between agencies and allies, and convince officials that the group is fractured and primarily based in Iran.This tactic is tied to Strategy 17: Division, Strategy 23: Misdirection, and Strategy 31: Trojan Horse.
“Show them what they want to see,
sell them what they want to buy,
feed them with what strengthen their belief.
Offer them something they want to believe,
not what we want them to believe.
A deceptive plan is a mirror in which the enemy
sees the reflection of their point of view.”
~Saif al-Adel
Lesson 4: Asymmetric and Guerrilla Tactics
Rather than confronting powerful militaries directly, Adel favors irregular warfare. He advocates for fast, mobile operations that sideline first responders and overwhelm defenses. Multiple, unpredictable but coordinated attacks on transportation systems and symbolic sites are designed to cause paralysis and fear. He also employs hidden-hand tactics to first convince the intelligence community and law enforcement that the threat solely comes from the Islamic State or isolated lone wolves—before revealing a large-scale, coordinated event too late to stop.
These tactics align with Strategy 14: Quick Attack and Strategy 26: Void/Guerrilla.
Lesson 5: Weaponizing the Media
Adel sees media, when properly exploited, as a force multiplier—easily influenced and complementary to his efforts. Future attacks will be paired with strategic messaging campaigns that amplify fear, shift narratives, and portray the U.S. government as the aggressor. Social media will be exploited to spread panic, obscure responsibility, and recruit sympathizers and agitators in solidarity.This reflects Strategy 13: Information Strategy and Strategy 25: Displaying the Truth.
Lesson 6: Moral Framing of Violence
Adel frames al-Qaeda’s violence as a form of ethical resistance. Publicly, he emphasizes targeting government and military entities—a tactic employed in the October 7th attacks—while downplaying that civilians were harmed. This selective moral narrative helps recruit individuals disillusioned with Western policies and complicates U.S. counter-narratives. It also explains why Adel chose the date of October 7th for Hamas, due to its historic tie to the launch of Operation Enduring Freedom by then-President George W. Bush on October 7, 2001.This aligns with Strategy 33 and how ideology is used to justify violence.
Lesson 7: Learning from U.S. Reactions
Adel closely studies U.S. responses to terror—like the overreach post-9/11—and uses them to provoke costly mistakes. His objective is to bleed America economically, socially, and politically through calculated provocations.This approach draws from Strategy 1: Pulling the Fox Out of Its Hole and Strategy 2: Open Horizon.
Lesson 8: Building Unity Across Jihadi Movements
A major focus of Adel’s new role—heading the Council for Coordination with Jihadi Organizations also known as the Islamic Army—is fostering unity across disparate terrorist groups. He emphasizes shared grievances and narratives to unify operatives and galvanize recruitment, particularly among those impacted by U.S. counterterrorism efforts.This reflects Strategy 5 and Strategy 7, which emphasize cohesion and internal strength.
Broader Implications for the Upcoming U.S. Plot
Motivations: Adel’s intent is clear: challenge U.S. global dominance, destabilize its institutions, and inspire worldwide resistance. His goal remains unchanged—to bring the United States to its knees as on September 11, 2001.
Tactics: If not thwarted, expect a blend of psychological warfare, media manipulation, covert operatives, and multi-city attacks on symbolic targets—including a renewed focus on aviation.
Challenges: Adel’s strategy is adaptive, long-term, and opportunistic. The time to strengthen public resilience and clear communication is now. Awareness and local readiness can blunt the chaos Adel hopes to unleash.