Al-Qaeda is increasingly encouraged by the momentum of its affiliate in Somalia, al-Shabaab, as the group makes a calculated push toward Mogadishu. This is not merely a local insurgent campaign, but a coordinated effort involving senior leaders from both al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda’s core leadership based in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda commander Hamza al-Ghamdi, operating from Afghanistan, is now directly overseeing the Somalia portfolio and working closely with al-Shabaab’s top commander, Ahmad Diriye. Their shared objective is clear: bring Mogadishu within striking range, undermine the Somali government’s hold on the capital, and dislodge foreign diplomatic and military actors—particularly the United States.
Since launching its Shabelle Offensive in February 2025, al-Shabaab has captured key towns in the Middle and Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions, including the severing of a major highway that links the capital to Ethiopia. In the lead-up to what appears to be the beginning stages of a full-scale encirclement of Mogadishu, an estimated 3,000 fighters and 200 elite terrorist units have reportedly concentrated within 20 to 30 kilometers of the capital. The group’s early April mortar attacks on the Presidential Palace and Aden Adde International Airport—near where the U.S. Embassy is located—were a stark signal of intent and capability, demonstrating al-Shabaab’s reach into Mogadishu despite government control. This followed a March assassination attempt using a roadside bomb targeting President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
The Somali National Army (SNA), which should be the first line of defense for Mogadishu, is increasingly compromised. Internal fractures driven by clan rivalries, poor leadership, and systemic corruption have led to mounting defections—some of which have enabled al-Shabaab’s intelligence and security wing, the Amniyaat, to infiltrate government ranks. Recent reports suggest that morale is low and several pro-government militias have either disbanded or defected entirely. The January 1, 2025 transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 2767, has further complicated the security environment, reducing operational coherence at a time when unity is most needed.
For the United States, al-Shabaab’s advance presents a multi-dimensional threat. The U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu, located adjacent to the frequently targeted Aden Adde Airport, faces persistent security challenges that could soon require a further scale-back of personnel. U.S. military efforts—including the advisory mission supporting the Danab Brigade and the construction of new forward operating bases—risk disruption or abandonment should the capital come under siege. While limited U.S. airstrikes have degraded some al-Shabaab cells in the Shabelle regions, they have not halted the group’s forward momentum. As Al-Qaeda channels support into Somalia—including weapons and fighters—its franchise is closing in on a symbolic and strategic victory: the destabilization and possible fall of Mogadishu.