From Afghanistan to Mogadishu: Hamza bin Laden’s Tactical Plotting — A U.S. Intelligence Blind Spot

Hamza bin Laden, the current leader of Al-Qaeda, continues to direct the group’s plotting and operations from Afghanistan with apparent impunity. Under his leadership, Al-Qaeda has shifted from primarily symbolic or opportunistic strikes to focusing on hardened, strategic targets. Hamza is reportedly the key figure behind the July 9, 2025, suicide bombing at the General Dhagabadan Military Training Academy in Mogadishu—also known as the Jaalle Siyaad Military Academy. This attack further confirms that Al-Qaeda, when supporting regional affiliates like al-Shabaab, is willing to expand its operational reach if there is clear tactical value.

The Dhagabadan Academy serves as Somalia’s primary military induction and training center. It is heavily guarded and regularly hosts bilateral military training programs with European and U.S. forces. The attack was a calculated effort to expose vulnerabilities within the Somali National Army and to attack foreign national trainers, while supporting al-Shabaab’s ongoing campaign to seize control of Mogadishu. On the morning of July 9, a suicide bomber infiltrated the academy during a morning formation. Reports varied, stating anywhere from five to 12 military personnel killed, with multiple others wounded. Casualties were limited by a vigilant security element that noticed abnormalities in the bomber’s vest and attempted to intervene, forcing a premature detonation.

The lack of publicly available forensic information on the explosive vest prevents comparison to devices reportedly intended for use in the U.S., where Al-Qaeda continues to plot attacks against secure military and civilian targets, including airliners. This attack is part of a growing pattern of operational plots linked to Hamza bin Laden that have been ignored by the U.S. government and Western media. The continued failure to publicly acknowledge Hamza’s leadership role represents both a strategic and analytical gap. Al-Qaeda, under Hamza’s leadership, is evolving into a bolder, more tactically disciplined organization. Current U.S. intelligence threat prioritization models have downplayed Al-Qaeda’s resurgence, a miscalculation that risks giving the group continued operational freedom to escalate attacks not only in Somalia but beyond.

U.S. agencies have repeatedly failed to formally attribute or thoroughly analyze Hamza bin Laden’s ongoing involvement in external terrorist plots, despite unmistakable indicators. This critical oversight exposes a dangerous blind spot in our national security apparatus—one that undermines timely warning, threat prioritization, and effective counterterrorism action against Al-Qaeda. Immediate establishment of an Interagency Red Cell review is not just necessary, it is urgent. This review must rigorously identify and close systemic gaps in how we recognize, prioritize, and report on Al-Qaeda-directed operations. The threat is no longer an ocean away. The next suicide bomber dispatched by Hamza could target one of our own military academies.