Choose Your Path
People, relationships, command structures, succession, influence, and the networks that shape outcomes.
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Al-Qaeda held footage of Hamza bin Laden recorded as Afghanistan was falling in August 2021 and waited more than five years to release it. The timing tells us something about how the organization intends to use him now.
Read briefBriefing work
Current assessments and intelligence-style work connected to this subject.
Five years after the Abbey Gate bombing, this brief reconstructs the twelve days before the attack: the authorization, the bomber’s release and movement, the network around…
Read briefFive years after Kabul fell, Afghanistan should not be understood simply as the end of America’s longest war. It marked the beginning of another cycle in…
Read briefGrowing anti-Taliban resistance in northern Afghanistan is doing more than testing the battlefield. It is exposing tensions between the movement’s southern Pashtun leadership and influential Tajik,…
Read briefThe surge of Chinese nationals arriving at America's borders between 2021 and 2024 has largely disappeared from the headlines. Border encounters have fallen dramatically across both…
Read briefA framework for moving beyond group-by-group disruption toward the shared ecosystems, facilitators, logistics, finance, and technical support that allow threats to regenerate.
Read on the siteThe current global environment is no longer defined by isolated crises. It is defined by convergence. What analysts now describe as a polycrisis is not a…
Read briefIRGC Unit 840 is a secretive part of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that mixes intelligence, proxies, and criminal networks to carry out covert operations around…
Read briefThe release and transfer of ISIS-affiliated women from detention facilities in Syria by forces aligned with Abu Mohammad al-Julani represents a material and underrecognized security threat.…
Read briefRecent federal prosecutions and government actions have exposed a broad pattern of fraud tied to Somali-linked networks exploiting U.S. taxpayer-funded programs. While individual cases are often…
Read briefIsrael’s recent recognition of Somaliland formalizes a political reality that has existed since 1991 and highlights a long-standing gap between international policy and what actually happens…
Read briefBetween January and October 2025, Africa has witnessed a sharp escalation in targeted killings of Christians, with concentrated violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),…
Read briefThe Bin Laden family is actively shaping operational plans for a large-scale attack on the U.S. homeland—an attack intended to eclipse the strategic and symbolic impact…
Read briefThe concept of an "Islamic Army" or "Army of Imam Mahdi" traces back to Osama bin Laden’s vision of uniting global terrorist groups under a singular…
Read briefAugust 28, 2024 Introduction This analysis compares al-Qaeda's leadership, global presence, operational capabilities, financial networks, ideological influence, relationship with the Taliban, recruitment strategies, and alliances in…
Read briefResearch & source work
Investigations, reports, letters, source work, and earlier research that add context.
A visual target deck mapping key non-Pashtun Taliban commanders, their networks, command structures, and foreign-jihadist connections.
Read on the siteThe Commons
Practical guidance from The Commons for turning lessons into capability.
How volunteers, veterans, medical professionals, faith groups, and neighborhood leaders can prepare to assist without creating confusion.
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