The Commons · Systems thinking
Large disruptions often reveal dependencies that were easy to overlook on an ordinary day. These seven blind spots offer a way to examine those dependencies before a crisis turns them into urgent decisions.
This is an exercise in asking better questions, not a prediction of a particular event. A family, workplace, or community group can use the same questions at different scales.
1. Complexity hides the chain behind a simple task.
A card payment may rely on electricity, a connection, a processor, and a bank. A working tap relies on treatment, power, equipment, and people. Pick one service you use every day and trace what supports it. Where would a failure first be visible to you?
2. Efficiency leaves little room for interruption.
Fast replenishment and lean inventory keep costs down, but can leave little time to adapt when transport or supply is disrupted. Identify an essential item your household or team regularly runs close to empty. A modest buffer, a second supplier, or an agreed substitute may buy useful time.
3. Some infrastructure is almost invisible.
Cloud services, cellular networks, electrical equipment, and GPS timing support tasks beyond the apps where we notice them. Ask which decisions still work if a major service is unavailable for a day. Keep an offline copy of critical contacts, directions, or operating steps where that makes sense.
4. More information can make a decision harder.
During an incident, updates arrive at different speeds and with different levels of verification. Choose in advance which local authorities, utilities, or organizations you will consult. When reports conflict, label what is confirmed, what is uncertain, and when the next check will happen.
5. The people nearest the problem may see it first.
National guidance matters, but schools, neighbors, clinics, public works staff, and local responders often encounter the first practical consequences. Know who receives a concern in your community and how information gets to the people authorized to act.
6. Dependence can become so routine that it disappears.
Phones now carry maps, banking, account verification, documents, and contact lists. Try one small test: put your phone aside and find the number, address, or payment method you would need today. Fix the most inconvenient gap you discover.
7. Familiarity can harden into an assumption.
Plans are often built around the last event or the most familiar failure. Ask what has changed since your last review: people, roads, technology, suppliers, or warning methods. Invite someone with a different role to challenge the plan, and revise it when evidence no longer fits.
Turn the exercise into one action.
Write down a dependency, the first sign that it is failing, and one action that preserves options. Assign a person and a date to check it. Preparedness becomes useful when a broad concern leads to a small decision someone can actually make.