I just read the bolded sections of the new ODNI Threat Assessment that can be found here starting on page 7 under the Terrorism section, then commented on each heading:
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2026-Unclassified-Report.pdf
TERRORISM
The U.S. continues to face a complex and evolving threat landscape with a geographically diverse set of Islamist terrorist actors seeking to propagate their ideology globally and harm Americans, even as al-Qa‘ida and ISIS are significantly weaker than at their respective peaks during the early 2000s and mid-2010s.
The spread of Islamist ideology—in some cases led by individuals and organizations associated with the Muslim Brotherhood who have provided financial and other forms of material support to terrorist groups such as HAMAS and Hizballah—poses a fundamental threat to freedom and foundational principles that underpin Western Civilization.
In response to setbacks to their capabilities that have mitigated the threat of large-scale, complex attacks and reinforced the regional focus of the largest groups, Islamist terrorists have shifted attention to executing information operations to spread propaganda and inspire or enable individuals located in or with access to the West.
In recent years, al-Qa‘ida and ISIS plotters intent on targeting the Homeland have focused more on virtually recruiting U.S.-based aspirants to encourage and enable potential attacks.
While al-Qa‘ida and ISIS maintain the intent to launch operations targeting the U.S., the most likely terrorist attack scenario in the Homeland involves U.S.-based lone offenders—such as the New Orleans attacker on New Year’s Day in 2025 and the perpetrator of the attack on a pro-Israel gathering in Boulder, Colorado in June 2025.
Jihadist ideology and influencers play a key role in mobilizing individuals to violence by advancing anti-Western and pro-militant narratives.
Al-Qa’ida and ISIS pose the biggest threat to U.S. interests overseas in parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, where these groups operate.
We are continuing to assess how the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict will affect the worldwide terrorism landscape during the coming year.