LinkedIn · Social Writing
The Threat Model Has Changed
The threat model has changed. If we keep analyzing today’s terrorist networks with yesterday’s assumptions, much of that analysis belongs in the burn bag.
The Watch Floor
Current Work
Reporting, analysis, and conversations designed to help you understand what matters most.
The Watch FloorTrain for the Day the System Goes DarkFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Train for the Day the System Goes Dark
Do not just train for the attack. Train for the failure of the systems you expect to help you respond to it.
The Watch FloorSee Something, Say Something: What Are You Actually Looking For?Facts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
See Something, Say Something: What Are You Actually Looking For?
A Watch Floor brief on recognizing behavior in context, reporting a useful observation, and building the handoff that gets a warning to the people…
LinkedIn · Social Writing
Accuracy Matters When Reporting a Strike
Sarah Adams on acknowledging civilian casualties and examining the targets and reporting around Pakistan’s September 21 strikes.
SOFREP · Analysis
Hamza bin Laden and What Türkiye and Qatar Were Really Discussing With the Taliban
Sarah Adams analyzes the September 2026 Taliban meetings involving Türkiye and Qatar, Hamza bin Laden, the Doha framework, and regional militant networks in this…
The Watch FloorHow Russia Outsourced an Assassination in AmericaFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
How Russia Outsourced an Assassination in America
A companion memo to the September 21 Watch Floor episode. The indictment describes a layered recruitment network, completed surveillance in the U.S., and alleged…
SOFREP · Investigation
The Hidden History of One Benghazi Cell: The German Terrorists Who Joined the Attack
Fourteen years after Benghazi, the public still knows far more about Washington’s response than it does about the international terrorist network that assembled the…
Watch Floor Brief
Al-Qaeda Waited Five Years to Release This Hamza bin Laden Content
Al-Qaeda held footage of Hamza bin Laden recorded as Afghanistan was falling in August 2021 and waited more than five years to release it.…
CNN via Getty ImagesThe Daily Wire · Analysis
The 9/11 Files Show America Heard The Warning And Missed The War
Newly declassified 9/11 files show that warnings about Osama bin Laden and attacks inside the U.S. were reaching the highest levels of government years…
The Watch FloorWhat AQIS Wants the Next Generation to Learn From 9/11Facts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
What AQIS Wants the Next Generation to Learn From 9/11
AQIS is using the 25th anniversary of 9/11 to explain to a younger audience why it believes America should remain the priority and to…
Hasib Panjshiri · Wikimedia Commons / CC0Afghanistan International · Investigation
Inside the Taliban Intelligence Operation That Killed Hasib Panjshiri
A reconstruction of the Taliban intelligence operation that penetrated resistance contacts, tracked Hasib Panjshiri’s movement, and led to the August 20 ambush in Salang.
Watch Floor Brief
The ISIS Blind Spots We Keep Missing
ISIS’s global spokesman reportedly surfaced in a mud-brick house in Yemen. The bigger intelligence question may be what was recovered inside and what it…
The Watch FloorWashington Is Coming BackFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Washington Is Coming Back
The House is back after the August recess, the Senate returns for regular business September 14, and Washington is beginning to move again. The…
SOFREP / Telegram channel ASTRA via Kyiv PostSOFREP · Analysis
Ukraine’s Spy Agencies Just Started Shooting at Each Other
A shootout between Ukraine’s SBU and military intelligence exposed something more dangerous than bureaucratic rivalry: a breakdown in operational deconfliction during an active intelligence…
Photo by Win McNamee/Getty ImagesThe Daily Wire · Analysis
Congress Just Admitted A Key 9/11 Security Gap Remains
Twenty-five years after 9/11, one of the border-security reforms recommended by the 9/11 Commission remains unfinished: a comprehensive biometric entry-exit system.
The Watch Floor10 Warnings Buried in Congress’s New 9/11 ReportFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
10 Warnings Buried in Congress’s New 9/11 Report
Twenty-five years after 9/11, the House Intelligence Committee reviewed what the U.S. fixed, what remains unfinished, and where new intelligence gaps may be forming.…
The Watch FloorThe Oil War Behind the HeadlinesFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Oil War Behind the Headlines
The fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and Washington’s new Venezuela oil agreement look like separate stories. Viewed through energy security, they are part…
The Watch FloorThe Intelligence Value of a Plane SpotterFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
The Intelligence Value of a Plane Spotter
A Chinese university student studying in Canada is in U.S. custody after the FBI says he admitted photographing specific aircraft and airport facilities for…
Nazar Abbas Photography via Getty ImagesThe Daily Wire · Analysis
The Next School Shooter May Have A Secret Assistant
Artificial intelligence is beginning to appear in school attacks and disrupted plots involving young people. The question is when scattered online behavior becomes a…
The Watch FloorSomeone Is Studying Europe’s Defense Supply ChainFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Someone Is Studying Europe’s Defense Supply Chain
Just after midnight Monday, an alarm sounded at a WB Electronics facility in Skarżysko-Kamienna, Poland. Local reporting said a masked person carrying a backpack…
The Watch Floor85 Americans Missing in the HimalayasFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
85 Americans Missing in the Himalayas
A catastrophic glacier collapse along the Nepal-Tibet border left thousands dead or missing, including approximately 85 Americans. Many of the Americans were pilgrims traveling…
The Watch FloorAbbey Gate: The Twelve Days Before the BombFacts over narratives
Watch Floor Brief
Abbey Gate: The Twelve Days Before the Bomb
Five years after the Abbey Gate bombing, this brief reconstructs the twelve days before the attack: the authorization, the bomber’s release and movement, the…
Image: Daily WireThe Daily Wire · Investigation
The Terrorist On Campus
A convicted ISIS supporter returned to Old Dominion University after federal prison. The university never knew his terrorism history until after he attacked an…
Domestic Preparedness
The Cost of Ignoring Weak Informational Signals
Major crises rarely arrive without warning. The challenge is recognizing when scattered signals begin pointing in the same direction and acting while meaningful options…